Around the W: Dynasty vs Destiny

The highly anticipated WNBA Finals is about to begin!

This felt inevitable, right? Once Breanna Stewart made her Free Agency decision that she would be teaming up with Jonquel Jones, Sabrina Ionescu, and Betnijah Laney it was all but confirmed that the New York Liberty would reach the WNBA Finals. That was cemented after Courtney Vandersloot also decided to join the Liberty a couple of days later.

Meanwhile, the Las Vegas Aces dominated their way through the 2022 season and playoffs. For 2023, they were bringing back all of their star players and oh yeah, added Candace Parker and Alysha Clark.

While the Aces cruised through the regular season winning more games than any other team in WNBA history (34 games); it took the New York Liberty a little more time to gel. But with a 40-game regular season, they had more than enough time to work out the kinks. No team looked better at the end than the Liberty.

Nothing was going to stop these two juggernauts. Both teams swept away their first-round opponents. Then they were slightly tested in the semi-finals but just slightly. Las Vegas swept the Dallas Wings but needed to rally late in the 4th quarter of Game 3 to secure the win. New York lost Game 1 against Connecticut before defeating them in three straight games. And now we are down to two.

During the regular season, the New York Liberty were the only team to defeat the Las Vegas Aces more than once. That will give them confidence as we head into this series.

Head-To-Head

1. Game 1: Las Vegas 98 - New York 81

2. Game 2: New York 99 - Las Vegas 61

3. Game 3: New York 82 - Las Vegas 63 (Commissioner’s Cup)

4. Game 4: Las Vegas 88 - New York 75

5. Game 5: New York 94 - Las Vegas 85

The two teams technically split the season series 2-2 because the Commissioner’s Cup doesn’t count as an actual game in the regular season. However, both teams wanted to win the CC Trophy and it was New York that really dominated that game, especially in the 2nd half.

The Liberty greatly improved as the season went on; the Aces had to adjust after losing Candace Parker to a season-ending foot injury. Parker’s absence may be a key factor in these WNBA Finals.

Important Matchups

A’ja Wilson versus Breanna Stewart

The back-to-back league MVPs are almost inarguably the two greatest players in the WNBA today. Stewie and A’ja can dominate games on both ends of the floor. Stewie is able to score at all three levels better than just about anyone. Meanwhile, I feel A’ja Wilson is the most dominant post player in the league today. She also has an excellent midrange game and is one of the best at getting to the free throw line.

A’ja Wilson is the back-to-back Defensive Player of the Year. She has the edge there. But Stewie is also a great rebounder and is one of the Liberty’s best defenders. Stewart is also a better passer.

No player has been more dominant in these playoffs than A’ja Wilson. Wilson is averaging nearly 26 PPG and more than 11.0 RPG this postseason. Stewart has struggled with her scoring efficiency connecting on just 36% and a career-low 21% from beyond the arc in the playoffs this year. With that said, she’s still averaging nearly 20 PPG, 9.0 RPG, and 3.0 APG.

I give the slightest edge to Wilson and the Aces. However, there is one other major factor that leads into the next matchup discussion. Stewart is joined by Jonquel Jones in New York’s frontcourt. The Aces likely won’t be able to double-team Stewie much if at all, allowing her to go one-on-one. But I do think the Liberty will send multiple defenders at A’ja Wilson to slow her down. Because of that, I can’t call a clear winner in this matchup.

Advantage: EVEN

Jonquel Jones versus Kiah Stokes

Jonquel Jones was slow to get going at the beginning of this season. Through the first month or two, Jones looked out of place and struggled to find her role on this stacked New York Liberty team. It also didn’t help that she was still dealing with a foot injury that she suffered at the end of last season. A switch was flipped during the 2nd half of the season and Jones has often looked like she did in 2021 when she won the MVP award.

JJ has come up huge in the playoffs for New York. She’s grabbed multiple key offensive rebounds and has posted double-doubles in all six playoff games. This includes finishing off the Connecticut Sun with 25 points and 15 rebounds! She is averaging nearly 17 PPG and 13 RPG in the playoffs.

Meanwhile, Kiah Stokes has the unenviable job of replacing Candace Parker. Stokes is a good rebounder averaging more than 8.5 RPG in the playoffs but is a liability on the offensive end. She averages less than 3 PPG for the Aces. Stokes's role will be to do her best to help limit the impact of Jones and Stewart and keep them off the glass. But her lack of scoring range is going to allow the Liberty to double-team A’ja Wilson whenever she’s on the court.

Advantage: New York

Jackie Young versus Betnijah Laney

This is the most underrated matchup of the entire WNBA Finals in my eyes. Both Jackie Young and Betnijah Laney have been fantastic for their respective teams. Young continues to grow into an incredible player. She had a better regular season than Laney and is currently having the best post-season of her career. Young is averaging 15.2 PPG, 6.4 RPG, and 5.0 APG in the playoffs.

On the other side, Laney stepped up her game in the postseason. She’s increased her scoring average by more than 4.0 PPG in the playoffs up to 17.0 PPG. Betnijah has added 5.2 RPG and 3.0 APG as well. She was a key piece in the Liberty’s victories over Connecticut.

Jackie Young is one of the league’s best three-point shooters averaging nearly 45% from beyond the arc. She normally has a good size advantage against her defenders allowing her to score easily inside the paint but she will be guarded by Laney who will match her size.

If the Las Vegas Aces are going to win this year’s WNBA Finals, then Jackie Young will need to outplay Betnijah Laney. That won’t be easy as Laney is playing some of the best basketball of her career right now.

Prior to the playoffs, I would have given the Aces the advantage here. But after seeing Laney perform in these playoffs it is simply too close to call.

Advantage: EVEN

Sabrina Ionescu versus Kelsey Plum

These two have been rivals since their time in the PAC-12 between the Washington Huskies and the Oregon Ducks. Sabrina Ionescu really exploded onto the scene when she led the Oregon Ducks to a major upset over Plum’s Washington Huskies in the PAC-12 tournament during her freshman year. That was a bit of a changing-of-the-guard moment. Plum would go on to be selected #1 overall in the 2017 WNBA Draft and Sabrina Ionescu would follow her lead going #1 in 2020. Now these two meet again at the grandest stage of them all, the WNBA Finals.

Both are extremely talented scorers. Both guards are deadly three-point shooters each knocking down better than 42% from the arc. Ionescu and Plum are each averaging around 16 PPG this postseason.

I’d give Plum the advantage in her ability to get to the rim. However, Sabrina Ionescu can impact the game in more ways; averaging more rebounds and assists per game.

Ionescu has really been coming through in the clutch hitting some incredible shots at the most important times. Honestly, I’m not sure if any other player wants the championship more than Sabrina right now.

Advantage: New York

Chelsea Gray versus Courtney Vandersloot

It’s not a coincidence that the two teams that find themselves in the Finals have the two best floor generals in the league. Over the past two seasons, it’s been Chelsea Gray and Courtney Vandersloot who have led their teams to the WNBA Championship. They know what it takes to win and get the job done.

No player in the WNBA was better in the playoffs last season than Chelsea Gray. She was unguardable. No matter what defender teams put on her, she was knocking down shot after shot. It spurred the Aces to the WNBA Championship last year. They will need her to do it again to repeat as champions.

Courtney Vandersloot is generally considered the best pass-first point guard in the WNBA today. She does a fantastic job of getting all of her teammates involved. However, Vandersloot has had some tough moments in previous playoff series where she’s made costly mistakes at the wrong time. Her numbers are down in the playoffs compared to the regular season, averaging less than 10 PPG and just under 7.0 APG. She is still one of the best in the world but Las Vegas should have the edge here.

Advantage: Las Vegas

The Reserves

This series will almost certainly be won or lost by each team’s respective starters. But the bench players may prove to be an X-Factor even if it’s just for one game in the WNBA Finals. When looking at the group of subs, the New York Liberty clearly have the advantage. They play their bench more. They can bring in Kayla Thorton, Stefanie Dolson, or Marine Johannès off the bench. One can envision any of those three players making an impact if called upon.

Alysha Clark won the 6th Player of the Year award this season for Las Vegas. She’s won two titles with the Seattle Storm so she’s experienced in these big games. Clark is still one of the best perimeter defenders in the league and has worked hard to be a deadly three-point shooter from the outside. She could be a key part of an Aces victory. Outside of Clark, there isn’t much there. Kierstan Bell or Cayla George might get a few minutes but I expect the Aces to stick to a 6 or 7-player rotation.

For Las Vegas, Becky Hammon has been notorious for not playing her bench very much through her first two seasons in the WNBA. Last year, we thought it might catch up with the Aces late in the season and come back to bite them. It never did. They steamrolled their way to the title. Will it have an impact this year? We’ll have to watch and find out.

Advantage: New York

Head-To-Head Totals

New York 3 | Las Vegas 1 | Even 2

Final Thoughts

This is Dynasty versus Destiny. The Las Vegas Aces are looking to become the next great WNBA Dynasty by winning back-to-back championships for the first time in more than 20 years. Vegas has now reached the WNBA Finals three times in the past four years. And they were one possession away in Game 5 of the 2021 Semi-Finals from making it a perfect 4/4. If the Ace can pull this off and win their second WNBA title in as many years they will officially be crowned a WNBA Dynasty.

But are they going up against Destiny? Breanna Stewart finished college as the greatest winner in NCAA women’s history by winning four straight National Championships and being named the Most Outstanding Player during all four years. She was drafted #1 overall by the Seattle Storm and led them to the playoffs every single year she was on the team. Culminating with WNBA Championships in 2018 and 2020. And the first-ever Commissioner’s Cup Championship in 2021.

But in order to be truly great, Breanna Stewart couldn’t just keep winning championships in Seattle. The Storm franchise, along with the Minnesota Lynx and Houston Comets, have already won more championships than any of the other WNBA teams. Winning her third championship in the city of Seattle wouldn’t be nearly the same accomplishment as winning the New York Liberty’s first championship.

When you’re looking to talk about the All-Time greats. It becomes a gigantic feather in her cap if she can bring a WNBA Trophy to her home state of New York. Something the franchise has yet to do in its previous 26 seasons without her.

Final Prediction

They say to never underestimate the heart of a champion. The oddsmakers certainly aren’t as Las Vegas is the favorite to take the crown over New York. Maybe they’re seeing something I’m not seeing. Maybe they believe that homecourt advantage will be the difference and steer the Aces to victory.

This is how I look at it. I think the Candace Parker injury is huge. I also believe that Jonquel Jones’s return to MVP-form is going to put New York over the top. The Liberty have hit their stride at the right time. They’ve been battle-tested and they’ve come out stronger than ever. I think they’re the hungrier team. New York Liberty in four.