Too Much Liberty, NY Beat Storm 98-85

New York outlasted Seattle as they outscored the Storm by 15 in the 2nd half.

(Seattle, WA) - The Seattle Storm (19-12) put up a strong fight against the New York Liberty (27-6) but it ultimately wasn’t enough. There was too much Sabrina. Too much Stewie. And the Liberty had way too many rebounds. New York outscored Seattle 24-14 in the final quarter to defeat the Storm 98-85.

“They got some rebounds, some putbacks, some foul calls went their way. They scored more than we did.” Jewell Loyd said after the game.

Coach Noelle Quinn gave her overall thoughts on the team’s performance.

“I think the rebounding aspect of it is the biggest thing. Because if you have possessions and you play it and you get to a shot clock and someone gets a rebound on the floor and makes a shot… it’s backbreaking/debilitating. So defensively, whatever it is, we're flying around with pressure and contesting. We have to finish plays with rebounds, period. And I can live with missed coverages, I can live with missed cues. But with a team like New York, you have to be sharp. You can't have a lot of ‘my bads’ and miscommunications in those crucial moments we had too many.” Quinn stated.

Skylar Diggins-Smith played a fantastic game for Seattle. She breathed life into the team when they needed a major spark. Diggins-Smith finished with a team-high 26 points on 11-18 FG shooting. She also had a team-high seven assists.

“I think that she set the tone. I think that she was aggressive. When she's able to get downhill, get in a paint, and be very efficient, she's better. The distributing has been very consistent. She's top five in assists this year, and we're gonna need her to play at this aggressive level for the rest of the season.” Quinn added.

Jewell Loyd added 20 points but struggled with her shot (5-17 FG); especially in the 4th quarter where she made just 1-7 FG. Loyd was a perfect 8-8 from the FT line. Nneka Ogwumike was solid with 15 points and eight rebounds. But Seattle didn’t get enough from their post players. Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones outscored Nneka Ogwumike and Ezi Magbegor 38 to 21 and out-rebounded them 16 to 9. Magbegor really struggled in this game and got into foul trouble early.

Seattle’s ability to create turnovers, especially live-ball turnovers allowed them to be competitive throughout most of the game. They forced New York into 18 turnovers and scored 24 points from those mistakes. The Storm played a pretty clean game overall too. They only committed five turnovers and gave up seven points.

The Storm had slight advantages with points in the paint (48-42) and fast break points (11-8).

New York Liberty

Breanna Stewart dominated the first half and Sabrina Ionescu dominated the 2nd half. Together they combined for 57 of the Liberty’s 98 points. Stewart scored 22 of her game-high 32 points in the first half. Ionescu scored 20 of her 25 points over the final 20 minutes of the game.

I asked Jewell if it was weird to see Stewie playing in Seattle for a different team and play against her.

“No, we played against each other for many years, so that's – I'm used to it by now. But yeah, Stewie is Stewie. MVP, we know what she can do. And when she gets going, it's kind of hard to stop her, stop anyone. We understand that. And yeah, she's their go-to player.” Loyd added.

Rookie Leonie Fiebich was the only other Liberty member to score in double figures with 12 points. She went 4-5 FG from beyond the arc and hit some critical ones to put New York on top for good.

Jonquel Jones was limited to just six points but she had a game-high 11 rebounds. Nyara Sabally and Betnijah Laney each made solid contributions off the bench. Sabally finished with seven points and eight rebounds. Laney-Hamilton finished with eight points and five rebounds.

Seattle’s defense was not able to slow down the Liberty’s high-powered offense. New York outshot the Storm 51% (34-67 FG) to 47% (33-71 FG). But more importantly, it was their three-point shooting that allowed them to create separation from the Storm. The Liberty knocked down 46% (12-26 FG) from beyond the arc compared to just 22% (5-23 FG) for Seattle. The Storm’s three-point shooting has been a major weakness all season long. Both teams were strong from the free throw line. New York shot 90% (18-20 FT) and Seattle made 93% (14-15 FT).

The most substantial stat difference came from the rebounding. The Liberty out-rebounded the Storm 45-17. New York had as many offensive rebounds (17) as Seattle had total rebounds. That can’t happen in a game. Honestly, it’s surprising that Seattle was as competitive in the game as they were; down by just two possessions with two minutes left in the game.

Jewell Loyd talked about the team’s rebounding problems after the game.

“We need to rebound. Everyone has to rebound. It's not just the post players. It's guards as well. So I got to do a better job of getting in there. Usually, I do. Sometimes it depends on matchups or shots or where they fall. But I think, we're all there. Some of them are just bobbling in our hands. Some of them are just not in the right place at the wrong time, things like that. But at the end of the day, it's rebounding and all the things, just a little more effort. And I don't question anyone's effort. I just think we just need that one little, right? Maybe some sticky stuff on our hands to help it. But other than that, I think it's just being more mindful of it.” Loyd stated.

Coach Quinn also spoke about it briefly.

“It was the biggest thing. It was one of our keys today. (We) Just can't win games giving up that many offensive rebounds, that many points off offensive rebounds. And that's the name of the game right there.” Quinn added.

Game Breakdown

Ezi Magbegor scored the game’s first basket. Skylar Diggins-Smith got past Breanna Stewart and used the rim to protect her and she reversed the layup. Gabby Williams then stole the ball and raced down the court for the open two. That quickly put the Storm up 6-0. Breanna Stewart responded with an open three-pointer and a nice cut to the rim for two more. Diggins-Smith scored again in the paint.

New York took the lead after Nyara Sabally got a layup and Sabrina Ionescu connected on a midrange jumper. Breanna Stewart made both free throws. Sami Whitcomb snagged an offensive rebound and made the putback layup. Nyara Sabally split a pair of free throws. Gabby found Nneka on a curl cut and Ogwumike finished at the rim. Jewell got fouled and made both free throws. Nyara Sabally made back-to-back baskets to tie the game at 22-22.

Joyner Holmes grabbed an offensive rebound past two defenders for two. Betnijah Laney-Hamilton scored on a turnaround jumper in the paint. Ogwumike scored again in the lane. Sabrina Ionescu drilled a three-pointer. At the end of the first quarter, the New York Liberty led 27-26.

Jonquel Jones bullied her way down low for two. Leonie Fiebich made a corner three to put New York up six at 32-26. Coach Quinn was forced to call a timeout. Out of the timeout, the Liberty’s defense continued to give Seattle problems forcing multiple turnovers. The Liberty extended their run to 11-0 to open the second quarter with Loyd, Ogwumike, and Magbegor all on the bench. Coach Quinn was forced to call another timeout to get them back in the game.

Skylar finally ended the run with a strong floater in the lane. Stewart responded quickly on the other end. Ezi scored in the paint. Seattle eventually got a stop and Diggins-Smith scored again. Trailing by 10 points, the Storm went on an 8-0 run getting baskets from Magbegor, Diggins-Smith, and Ogwumike.

Back-to-back three-pointers by Victoria Vivians and Jewell Loyd put the Storm back on top 44-42. Stewart was able to draw another foul on Magbegor and split the pair of free throws. Diggins-Smith scored again driving to the rim. Stewart drew another foul and made both free throws this time.

Jewell knocked in another three. Stewart matched her on the other end scoring again on a difficult off-balance jumper in the lane. Nneka and Stewart exchanged baskets to end the first half. Seattle led 51-49 at the midway point.

Seattle forced a shot-clock violation to begin the 2nd half. Skylar then found Nneka cutting to the rim. Stewart got a layup and then Jonquel Jones found Leonie Fiebich in the corner for a three. Loyd made a midrange jumper. Jonquel Jones scored down low in the paint. Diggins-Smith was fouled on a three-point attempt. SDS made all three free throws. Stewart was fouled on the other end and made both of her free throws. Diggins-Smith then got another drive to the rim.

Gabby Williams was fouled trying to box out for a rebound. With New York already in the penalty with more than half the quarter remaining, Williams sank both free throws.

Sabrina Ionescu got free on a miscommunication and rattled in a three-pointer to cut Seattle’s lead down to four at 65-61. A few plays later, Ionescu scored on an AND1 scoop off the backboard. Ionescu was then fouled on a three-point attempt by Jordan Horston and made all three free throws. That tied the game back up at 71-71. Ionescu then hit another three to put the Liberty back on top by three.

At the end of the third, New York led 74-71.

Breanna Stewart scored down the baseline. Courtney Vandersloot drilled a three-pointer and the Liberty quickly went on a 5-0 run and extended their lead to eight at 79-71 to begin the 4th quarter. Sami Whitcomb checked in and immediately scored inside the paint with a short jumper. Stewart responded with another basket.

Two offensive rebounds eventually led to an open shot for Betnijah Laney-Hamilton. That was the story of the night. That put New York up 10 at 89-79. The Storm made one final late push as Diggins-Smith and Ogwumike each scored to cut it to six.

Seattle had a chance to cut New York’s lead down to three as Loyd had a three-pointer rim in and out. On the very next possession, Leonie Fiebich drilled a corner three which was the dagger to put the game away with the Liberty up nine with less than two minutes to play. Sabrina Ionescu made some more free throws and scored on another layup as New York closed the game on a 9-2 run. Ultimately winning the game 98-85.

Final Box Score

Additional Analysis

Playoffs Clinched

The month of August was not kind to the Seattle Storm. They finished with just two wins and four losses. Despite that, the Storm are headed back to the WNBA Playoffs after missing the playoffs for the first time since 2015, one year ago.

Seattle’s strong play through the first portion of the season where they went 17-8 built them a large enough cushion to put them in playoff contention. With 8 of 12 teams in the league reaching the postseason, the Storm’s playoff berth was almost inevitable with the additions of Nneka Ogwumike and Skylar Diggins-Smith.

“It's hard to consistently be in the playoffs. Obviously, for us coming from last year to this year, that was a big goal of ours to be in the playoffs. So we understand and put things in perspective. Victoria's first time in the playoffs, so she's ecstatic, right, to know that. So you always got to find a positive in every day.” Loyd told me.

It is now official and the Storm are guaranteed to play at least two playoff games in late September. The question now is whether or not any of those games will be in Seattle. The top four teams all get to host the first two games of the opening round of the playoffs. The first round is also just a three-game series so the lower seed must steal a game on the road if they want to experience a home playoff game for themselves.

For a good portion of this season, the Seattle Storm and Las Vegas Aces have been battling for the 4th seed. Over this past week, the two teams have swapped positions in the standings at least two or three times.

After Friday night’s outcomes where Seattle lost to New York and Las Vegas beat Atlanta, the Aces move ahead of Seattle again. Currently, the Aces own the tiebreaker as they lead the regular season series 2-1. The two teams will face off again during Seattle’s 39th game of the season (of 40). If both teams still have a tied record at that point, that game will almost certainly determine who will own the 4th seed and the home playoff advantage in the third round.

If we take a quick look at the standings, it’s very difficult to envision the Storm falling any further than the 5th seed where they currently sit. Their chances of moving any higher than the 4th seed are also dwindling after an incredibly disappointing August where they lost twice as many games as they won.

There is still a slight chance the Storm could move up but they likely will need to sweep Connecticut over this next week. Seattle plays the Sun back-to-back on Sunday and Tuesday and will need to win both to have any chance to move up and even then there is no guarantee as they currently sit 3.5 games below Connecticut. They’re 3.5 games behind the Minnesota Lynx as well but that’s really 4.5 games due to the Lynx owning the tiebreaker. And they are 7 games behind the Liberty, actually 8 due to the tiebreaker, and the Storm have just nine games left to play. Mathematically, they could pass New York if they went 9-0 and the Liberty went 0-9. But yeah, that’s not happening.

Seattle is 3.5 games ahead of both Indiana and Phoenix. The Storm also own the tiebreaker over Indiana as they won the season series 3-1. So they are actually 4.5 games ahead of the Fever. Just as it is an uphill battle for the Storm to surpass Minnesota or Connecticut at this point. The same can be said for the Fever or Mercury trying to leap ahead of Seattle.

Realistically, the Storm are battling to finish with a better record than the Aces. Whether they do or they don’t, there is probably an 80% chance that the Storm and the Aces will be meeting each other in the first round of the playoffs.

New York’s Championship to Lose

The New York Liberty have been the best team in the WNBA all season long. They reached the WNBA Finals last season before coming up short against Las Vegas. Now they are hungrier than ever. Last year, it took around half of the season for them to get used to playing with one another. The team underwent a major overhaul adding multiple star players in Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, and Courtney Vandersloot. In 2024, the chemistry has been there from the very beginning.

Their bench is arguably better as well. Whether that’s moving Betnijah Laney-Hamilton to the bench to balance the lineups a bit more. Or Nyara Sabally’s increased production.

Statistically, the Liberty are the best team in the WNBA. They have an overall net rating of 12.0. They lead the league in Offensive Net Rating at 106.5. And they are ranked the third-best defensive team with a Defensive Net Rating of 94.4. Minnesota is the best defensive team in the league and they are only marginally better at 94.2.

The reason Overall Net Rating is so important is because it is an extremely accurate indicator of a team’s chances to win the WNBA Championship in any given year. For instance, Seattle led the league in 2018 (9.2) and 2020 (15.0) and won the WNBA Championship in both seasons. The Washington Mystics led the league in 2019 with a 14.8 Net Rating and they won the Championship that year. Last year, Las Vegas led the WNBA with a Net Rating of 15.3 and became the first franchise to win back-to-back championships since the Los Angeles Sparks did it in 2001-2002.

You can go back and review over the past 10 years or so and just about every season the eventual WNBA Champion will be the team that either had the best or second-best Overall Net Rating. I believe the lone exception was the 2021 season in which the Chicago Sky fumbled through the regular season finishing 16-16 and then got extremely hot in the playoffs at the right time.

When looking at the challengers that stand in New York’s way of taking the crown this year. There is Minnesota, Connecticut, Las Vegas, and Seattle.

The Storm have not yet proven they can match up well enough against New York to be a threat to beat them in a series. Seattle’s lack of three-point shooting would likely doom them in a playoff series with the Liberty. It also doesn’t help that the height and length of Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones have caused problems for Ezi Magbegor, limiting her impact.

Connecticut just beat the Liberty this week (72-64) but New York had already beaten them two times earlier this season. And I just don’t see Connecticut having enough to beat the Liberty three times in a 5-game playoff series. And without home-court advantage.

The Las Vegas Aces are still a very talented team but they have struggled this season. They currently rank 4th but have been dealing with injuries and just haven’t looked quite like the two-time defending champions this season. From a record percentage comparison, this is the worst they’ve done in the regular season since 2019.

Minnesota is the one team right now that I could see defeating the Liberty. The two teams have split the regular season so far 1-1. However, the Lynx did also beat New York in the Commissioner’s Cup Championship even though that doesn’t count in the actual records. What may allow the Lynx to pull off the upset is their excellent defense (#1 in the league) and their three-point shooting percentage (also #1 at 38.7%).

While the Lynx are built around Napheesa Collier and have put excellent complimentary players around her. New York has three players in Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, and Jonquel Jones who can completely take over a game. That’s why New York will be favored in a series over teams like Minnesota or Connecticut. But as of right now, the Lynx have the best odds over anyone else to stop Stewart and the Liberty.

Up Next

The Storm (19-12) have a very difficult three-game road trip ahead of them. They travel to Connecticut to face the Sun (22-8) at 10:00 AM on Sunday. Seattle will then face Connecticut again on Tuesday before they rematch with the New York Liberty for a final time this season on Thursday in Brooklyn.

Notes:
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