The Aces edge the Storm 95-92 in OT despite Stewart's big game
Seattle falters late as the Aces win the game in OT thanks to Chelsea Gray.
(Las Vegas, Nevada) - In a game that saw Seattle lead throughout the vast majority of play, it was the Las Vegas Aces that stole the victory away from Seattle when the final buzzer sounded. Simply put, Seattle let one get away. The Aces won 95-92 in OT after outscoring Seattle by 10 points through the fourth quarter and overtime periods. Chelsea Gray hit the game-winner over Breanna Stewart and Sue Bird missed a three in the game’s final seconds.
With the victory, the Las Vegas Aces improve to 11-4 on the season while the Storm lose back-to-back games for the first time all year and fall to 12-4. Both teams remain at the top of the WNBA standings. More importantly, for Vegas, the victory gives them the season series win over Seattle. Just as they had during the 2020 regular season. If the two teams finish with identical records, the Aces will own homecourt advantage. Unlike 2020, this year it’ll actually matter.
Breanna Stewart had a spectacular performance in this game scoring a game-high 35 points and pulling down 11 rebounds. She also had a strong defensive performance with three blocked shots and two steals. After the game, she said, “Whatever my stat line was. It obviously wasn’t enough.”
Despite the feeling that she let the team down, it wasn’t Seattle’s frontcourt that cost them the game. Breanna Stewart and Mercedes Russell (12 points, 11 rebounds) outplayed their counterparts from the Aces. A’ja Wilson led her team with 22 points and a team-high 11 rebounds. While Seattle held Liz Cambage in check, limiting the All-Star to just nine points and seven rebounds. Seattle’s frontcourt duo outscored Las Vegas’ 47-31 and outrebounded them 22-18.
“Every game, I come in trying to be aggressive. Really trying to see what the defense was going to give me, how they were going to play on-ball screens. In rotations and just continuing to be aggressive whether the ball goes in the hoop or doesn’t. And then for ‘Cedes (Mercedes Russell), she played really well around the rim. She was able to get those drop-down passes, she was running the floor, and her rebounding is huge. The fact that we outrebounded them, even in a loss, is impressive. And that’s how we need her to play, continue to build off this game, and take that going forward.” Breanna Stewart told me after the game.
Unfortunately, for the Storm, Seattle’s guards and perimeter players were completely outplayed by their opponents. Most notably, Jewell Loyd really struggled in this game. Her shot just would not fall through the net on Sunday as she made just 29% (5-17) of her attempts. Loyd finished the game with just 11 points, nearly half of what she normally averages. Loyd also finished with a game-high four turnovers.
Sue Bird also had a poor shooting performance. The 2nd game in a row for the long-time veteran. On Tuesday, the Storm lost to the Washington Mystics 87-83. Sue Bird scored just seven points in that game on 3-9 FG shooting including 1-5 from three-point range. On Sunday against Las Vegas, Bird was even worse. She finished the game scoring just seven points on 3-11 (27%) FG shooting and just 1-8 (under 13%) from long range. The best point guard of all time is currently 2-13 from beyond the arc in her last two games.
Katie Lou Samuelson had a decent game scoring seven points but completely disappeared in the 2nd half and OT period. Samuelson scored zero points and only took one shot despite playing 18 minutes after halftime. Seattle needs more production from other players when competing against a top team like Las Vegas and Lou was not able to provide that over the final two and half quarters.
Jordin Canada was the only player to do much off the bench scoring eight points on 4-6 FG shooting. Stephanie Talbot had decent production scoring five points making two out of her three shots. However, Talbot only played 11 minutes in the game. Many of Seattle’s bench players weren’t even given the chance to succeed in this game with their limited minutes. Something I’ll talk more about in the “Additional Analysis” section.
The Aces had five players score in double figures with A’ja Wilson and Chelsea Gray leading the way both scoring above 20 points. Gray finished with 21 points, including 15 points in the 4th quarter and overtime periods, and had the game-winner. Seattle’s inability to stop Gray late in the game cost them dearly.
Kelsey Plum continues her strong season after recovering from a torn Achilles as she led all reserve players with 15 points off the bench (13 came in the 2nd half). Riquna Williams and Jackie Young each added 12 points apiece. A testament to the incredible depth that Las Vegas possesses. They have six or seven players that range from MVP caliber to at-worst borderline All-Star.
The other key statistic in this game was the fact that the Aces went to the foul line 23 times while the Storm were awarded just nine shots from the charity stripe. More disappointing was the fact that the game was called fairly evenly through the first two quarters with Las Vegas having a slight edge (5-3) in foul attempts throughout the first half. The Aces had an 18-6 advantage the rest of the way, three times as many free throw attempts.
I think it’s fair to say that the Aces do a fantastic job of drawing contact and drawing fouls against opposing teams. This isn’t something that only happens when they face Seattle. This is their MO and something they’ve done for a while now against everyone else in the league. The interesting thing to me is that there is plenty of contact when the Aces are on the defensive end but the refs tend to swallow their whistle more often than not. But don’t call it the same way when Vegas has the ball. As a coach, I’d love to hear the explanation the refs give for calling the game so unevenly.
I spoke to Breanna Stewart after the game about that free throw disparity.
“It’s kinda crazy that the free throws were 23-9. I didn’t realize that during the game (she pauses for a moment). I don’t know what you want me to say right now. The refs do what they’re going to do. At the end of the day, we’re the ones on the court. There’s going to be times when there’s no calls, there’s missed calls, or bad calls. But that can’t be the excuse and the reason the outcome was what it was.” Stewart said.
Game Breakdown
The Storm got out to a nice start in this game leading the Las Vegas Aces 6-3 through the game’s opening three minutes. Then Las Vegas went on a 6-0 run with Jackie Young scoring a pull-up jumper and A’ja Wilson knocking down two more to give Las Vegas a 9-6 lead midway through the first quarter.
Seattle would finish the quarter on a 15-7 run including a 7-0 run at one point. It wasn’t so much Seattle’s scoring as they did not shoot the ball particularly well (under 43%) and very poorly from the three-point line (1-8). It was the Storm’s defense that made the biggest impact, especially with the addition of Mercedes Russell. Liz Cambage did major damage to the Storm when the Aces defeated Seattle in the second game of the season. Seattle desperately missed Russell’s size and length in that matchup and she was a huge asset in helping limit the dominant paint scoring by Vegas.
At the end of the first quarter, Seattle led 21-16. Breanna Stewart led all scorers with 11 points. Jewell Loyd was held scoreless on 0-5 FG shooting.
Early into the 2nd quarter, the Storm were able to knock down some outside shots. Stephanie Talbot, Jewell Loyd, and Sue Bird all hit shots from beyond the arc. After Loyd’s three-ball, Seattle went up nine points (their largest lead of the game) at 34-25.
Vegas would go on a 9-3 run to cut Seattle’s lead down to three at 37-34. Another three by Riquna Williams cut the Storm’s lead to just two at 39-37.
Seattle led 42-37 at the break after Katie Lou Samuelson knocked down a three at the buzzer. The Storm did a lot of things well in the first half, but taking care of the basketball wasn’t one of them. Seattle committed 13 of their 16 turnovers in the first half. They really had an opportunity to push their lead to double digits but they were sloppy with the basketball during the first two quarters.
Breanna Stewart led all scorers with 12 points in the first half. Katie Lou was the 2nd best for Seattle with seven. Jewell Loyd had just 3 points on 1-7 FG shooting.
Riquna Williams led the Aces with nine points, scoring all of them from beyond the three-point range. Jackie Young and A’ja Wilson were the next leading scorers for Las Vegas with eight points apiece.
Seattle outshot Las Vegas in the first half 50% (17-34) to 42% (15-36) and outrebounded the Aces 22-13. It really was the turnovers that hurt them, Seattle’s 13 turnovers in the first half alone were more than they normally average per game (12).
Breanna Stewart scored 10 more points in the third quarter including two three-pointers. Mercedes Russell also had six of her points in the quarter.
A’ja Wilson and Kelsey Plum did most of the damage against Seattle in the third period each adding six more points to their totals. Plus hit a three and hand an AND1 scoring opportunity on a very ticky-tack call against Breanna Stewart.
Both teams made solid runs in the third quarter, but Seattle finished up seven points at 65-58. The Storm outscored Las Vegas by two 23-21. The way things were going in this game, it looked like Seattle would be able to hold on to the victory. Through the first three quarters, Seattle had tied or outscored the Aces. But in the 4th, it was all Las Vegas.
The 4th quarter started with Chelsea Gray and Kelsey Plum getting easy baskets. Gray scored six points within the first two minutes of the quarter muscling her way into easy layups.
In total, Las Vegas knocked down seven shots in a row to begin the 4th quarter turning a seven-point deficit into a one-point lead at 75-74 after Kelsey Plum knocked down an open three-pointer. Vegas didn’t miss a shot until the 5:13 mark of the final period when Chelsea Gray missed a floater in the lane.
Seattle regained the lead on back-to-back baskets by Jordin Canada and Breanna Stewart to go back up three at 78-75 with 4:26 left to play.
The Aces regained the lead at 81-80 after A’ja Wilson got four more free throw attempts late in the game connecting on all four.
Trailing 84-82 with under a minute to play, Breanna Stewart and Sue Bird worked a beautiful two-woman game, pick and roll where Bird found Stewart passing over the defense to score an easy layup to tie the game at 84-84.
They were able to get a defensive stop when they needed it and called timeout with 27 seconds remaining. Breanna Stewart missed a 15-foot jumper but Liz Cambage knocked the ball out of bounds attempting to corral the rebound. With less than a second to play, Stewart got one last look at it where she got the ball in mid-air and tossed it at the rim, but the ball fell short and both teams were headed to overtime.
The Storm’s inability to close out the 4th quarter would cost them the game.
Jewell Loyd was knocked to the ground driving to the basket during the opening possession of overtime and the refs didn’t call anything. That is until they decided to call a foul on Mercedes Russell for attempting to get the rebound. The inconsistent calls were frustrating from Seattle’s perspective.
Breanna Stewart struck first in the extra period with a mid-range jumper. But the other (and current) MVP A’ja Wilson responded with a long two-point shot of her own.
Both teams missed multiple shots after that, likely due to fatigue this late into the game. Jewell Loyd once again gave Seattle the lead on a jumper (88-86) with 1:45 left to play. Kelsey Plum tied the game on a driving layup. But Mercedes Russell got fouled and knocked down two critical free throws to give the Storm a two-point lead with under a minute remaining.
Seattle got one more stop and had an opportunity to put the game away, but Jewell Loyd turned the ball over on a place that it looked like Liz Cambage hooked Mercedes Russell. As the ball was heading towards Russell and the next thing you know, Russell is being spun around with no chance at catching the pass. The refs swallowed their whistle again as A’ja Wilson benefitted with a steal on the non-call.
Loyd made another costly mistake as she fouled Chelsea Gray while Gray had the easy layup. Gray is one of the strongest guards in the league, but in that situation, you either need to foul the player hard to make it impossible for them to complete an AND1 opportunity, or you concede the two-point layup and limit any further damage.
On the next possession, Breanna Stewart got fouled with roughly 20 seconds left in the game and calmly sank both foul shots, allowing Seattle to regain a one-point lead at 92-91.
Las Vegas called timeout and Bill Laimbeer set up an excellent play between A’ja Wilson and Chelsea Gray. Laimbeer went with the hot hand and had Wilson set a screen for Gray, Seattle switched which put Breanna Stewart on Chelsea Gray. Gray shook her way crossing Stewart up and freeing herself enough space to get off the jumper that sank Seattle for good.
With 10 seconds left in the game, Seattle called their final timeout. Sue Bird got a screen and opted to launch a 28-foot three-pointer (well beyond the three-point line) that rimmed short. It was Bird’s 7th missed three-ball of the game. A’ja Wilson got the rebound and was fouled with less than a 2nd to play. At that point, it was all academic and Wilson was just able to pad her stats a little before the final buzzer.
After leading throughout the entire game until late in the 4th quarter, the Storm ran out of gas and lost a potentially very costly game.
“Chelsea got cooking a little bit (late in the game). They were trying to bait our coverages as far as when we were showing more bodies towards Liz. A couple of our breakdowns came on our rotations. At the end of the day, (the Aces) were looking at matchups that they liked and were going particularly in the paint. Using their aggressiveness to get buckets in that manner. They only had five free throws in the first half, but ended with 23.” Coach Quinn said.
I then asked the coach if she felt the team got fatigued down the stretch as every starter played well over 30 minutes (between 32-38) and if there was an over-reliance on the starters down the stretch.
“Yeah … two of their starters played 40 minutes. They’ve played 7 all year. At that point, we’re just trying to win the game. We’re just trying to go with what’s been working. We got very good energy from our bench, but honestly in those moments in the 4th quarter, when we’ve played that long together, it’s hard to adjust as far as subbing players in. Yeah, we were winded, but so were they. We’re just trying to win the game. I see a lot of 30’s (player’s minutes) but I see two 40’s on the other side. At the end of the day, dig deep, play hard and persevere through.” Coach Quinn responded.
Additional Analysis
A lot of thoughts after this game, so where should I begin?
The Las Vegas Aces are the team to beat
Despite finishing the 2020 regular season as the two-seed, the Seattle Storm were clearly the best team in the WNBA last season. Especially, after the Las Vegas Aces lost Dearica Hamby to an unfortunate knee injury in the semi-finals of the playoffs. The Storm were the healthiest team playing in the bubble, especially come playoff time. They were also the most talented with several superstar players and incredible depth.
But that was last season. And despite the fact that the Aces lost Angel McCoughtry to a torn ACL in the preseason, this new-look Aces team has so much talent it’s ridiculous. Even without McCoughtry, they have three players who were selected #1 overall in A’ja Wilson, Kelsey Plum, and Jackie Young (McCoughtry would have been the 4th). On top of that, they have Liz Cambage drafted 2nd overall in 2011 (3 x All-Star), Dearica Hamby is a two-time 6th woman of the year winner (2019, 2020), and Chelsea Gray (4 x All-Star). Even Riquna Williams has won 6th woman of the year (2013) and one All-Star nod (2015). The team is loaded with All-Star and MVP level talent and it shows.
The Aces lead the WNBA in Net Rating at 12.4. They are the best offensive team in the league with an Offensive Rating of 107.1 and the 2nd best team on defense with a Defensive Rating of 94.7.
When the playoffs take place, teams are going to shorten their rotation to around eight players. No other team has the talent that the Aces do. Even in this game, when the Storm were able to limit A’ja Wilson and Liz Cambage from completely dominating. Las Vegas was still able to win the game because they got huge contributions from Chelsea Gray, Kelsey Plum, and strong performances from Jackie Young and Riquna Williams.
Las Vegas isn’t perfect. They still rely heavily on free throw attempts. If the refs let the teams get more physical in the playoffs without blowing the whistle every few seconds, Vegas could struggle. But that’s not much of a weakness if the opposing team’s best hope is that the refs don’t call a lot of fouls.
Seattle, Connecticut, and Minnesota have all proven they can beat the Aces. But will any of those teams be able to outlast the talented Vegas team in a five-game series? As of right now, I have my doubts.
I will say this if the Aces don’t win the championship this season, then I feel it should be looked at as a huge disappointment for them. Seattle rebuilt their team with back-to-back #1 overall picks in 2015 and 2016 and an excellent trade for Natasha Howard in 2018. Those moves have resulted in two championships since drafting Loyd and Stewart, even if it took them a few years to learn, grow, and get it done.
Las Vegas had the #1 overall picks in 2017, 2018, and 2019. Plus they’ve since acquired superstar Liz Cambage in 2019. The expectation for them should be nothing short of a WNBA Championship at the end of this season.
Coach Quinn’s rotation decisions
If there’s one criticism that people can point to with this current Seattle Storm team it’s that the bench players might not be getting enough opportunities to find success. The starters are playing heavy minutes. This is concerning because it means the bench players aren’t getting enough time to develop their games, especially with so many new pieces.
Seattle and Coach Quinn are in a tough predicament. They have a veteran core of Breanna Stewart, Jewell Loyd, and Sue Bird. Those three are Seattle’s best players and are largely responsible for Seattle’s 12-4 record that sits atop the WNBA standings. There is a fine balance between wanting to develop all players while also finding ways to win each and every game.
It’s no secret that Seattle needs to finish in the top two to automatically get a double-bye in the playoffs to the semi-finals. Since the playoff format changed in 2016, only one team has reached the WNBA Finals that didn’t have the double-bye. That would be the Washington Mystics in 2018 who finished with the 3rd best record and managed to upset the Atlanta Dream in the semi-finals before being swept away in the Finals by the Storm.
Quinn knows this and I think that’s a big reason why the returning veterans are playing so much. But the team also needs to look at the big picture. Sue Bird sat out and rested for three games in 2018. She then missed the entire 2019 season due to a knee injury and to potentially save the wear and tear for another season with Breanna Stewart who was out all of 2019 with a torn Achilles. Bird then missed half of the regular season in 2020 (11 games). Some of that was due to re-aggravating a knee injury and a few other games she rested in order to recover as an aging veteran. The strategy worked out for Seattle long-term as Bird was well-rested and fully healthy for the playoffs where she helped lead Seattle to a perfect 6-0 playoff run and her 4th WNBA title. Including setting a new WNBA record with 16 assists in a Finals game.
However, the team could be at a little bit of a crossroads. As mentioned above, Bird’s shot is really struggling these past two games. It might be time to consider giving her a day’s rest or at least reducing her minutes. Not only has Bird played all 16 games this season, but her minutes are up significantly. In 2020, Bird started every single game she played, but Jordin actually averaged more minutes per game. Canada played 24.2 minutes while Sue played 23.4 MPG. But in 2021, there’s been a stark difference. Sue is averaging 28.7 MPG while Jordin is only getting 16.8. And while Jordin’s numbers have dipped a bit this season, I think it’s fair to say a lot of that has to do with a lack of playing time, a lack of finding her rhythm in games with limited minutes.
Beyond that, players like Stephanie Talbot and Ezi Magbegor need to play more as well. Ezi’s role has been much less this season than I expected. When given some playing time, more often than not she has had success. She’s only 21 years old so of course, there are still going to be mistakes made. But I’ve seen enough flashes to believe that she can contribute a lot more to this team than what she’s been able to do so far in limited minutes. Her breakaway fast break that resulted in a beautiful pass to Jewell Loyd for an easy two was arguably the best play of the game.
Talbot has proven to be a great addition to this Storm team. She scored five points in just 11 minutes in this game. Seattle either needs Katie Lou Samuelson to start scoring more if she’s going to be playing 30+ minutes or Stephanie Talbot deserves some of those minutes.
Mercedes Russell plays such a large role
Mercedes Russell has been the unsung hero for the Seattle Storm this season. While Breanna Stewart, Jewell Loyd, and Sue Bird get all of the headlines, it’s been Russell’s emergence as a very strong defender and solid rebounder that has allowed Seattle to play so well. Before these back-to-back losses, the Storm were 11-1 with Russell in the lineup. Her size and presence have made up for Natasha Howard in a lot of ways. Russell is a significantly different player than Howard but with her size, strength, and length she’s able to limit opposing team’s post players from scoring at will.
Russell is having a very solid season averaging 6.6 PPG and a career-best 6.4 RPG in just over 23 minutes. Coach Quinn talked about how important she’s become to this team.
“I am the biggest Mercedes Russell advocate. I think what she does for us and for our team is undervalued. Not by me or our staff or us, but by others. Sometimes her stats don't jump out, but she's solid defensively, she's smart offensively, she’s an excellent teammate, she moves the ball, she understands basketball, and I think people need to appreciate her game and what she does more honestly. Seeing a double-double from her, it shows me how much more that she can give for us. We know that we have a big three, but Mercedes is a big part of what we do. She is absolutely important, a vital piece to this thing.” Quinn said.
Jordin Canada added, “Mercedes is a great player. When she's locked she's just really hard to guard. So, to have her on our team is a blessing. She's a great screener, she can rebound, she can guard without having people needing to double or help, so she just does it all for us. She did a great job tonight defending A’ja and Liz.”
Russell is likely playing her way to a nice contract next season, whether that will be with Seattle or a different team remains to be seen.
Jersey Count
I started this section because I thought it’d be a fun thing to track throughout the season. With Nike delivering three unique uniforms to every WNBA team this season, I was interested to see how the team would perform with each set. Similar, to how the Seahawks always seem to win games in their Action Green color rush uniforms.
Well as of right now, as we are exactly halfway through the 2021 season, the green and white Heroine jerseys are the clear leader in the clubhouse. Seattle is currently 6-0 while wearing those uniforms.
On Sunday, the Storm wore their Rebel Black jerseys for the second game in a row. And unfortunately, they lost again. They drop to .500 while wearing their black uniforms at 3-3 overall.
Records per jersey type this season:
Rebel: 3-3
Explorer: 3-1
Heroine: 6-0
Overall Record: 12-4
Commissioner Cup update
Las Vegas had to win this game if they had any chance of making the Commissioner’s Cup Championship game. By beating Seattle, Vegas improves to 4-2 in Cup standings while Seattle drops their first game of the in-season “tournament” and is now 5-1.
Both teams have four games remaining in Commissioner Cup play with Seattle facing the Los Angeles Sparks (home/away) and the Phoenix Mercury (home/away). The Aces, meanwhile play four different teams, the Sparks on the road, the Mercury and Lynx at home, and the Wings in Dallas.
If Seattle wins out (4-0) there’s nothing Las Vegas can do and the Storm will advance to the Championship Game (of this CC tournament). If Seattle finishes 2-2 and Las Vegas wins out (4-0), then the Aces will make the Cup Finals. If the Storm finish 3-1 and Las Vegas finishes 4-0, then it’ll be based on tiebreakers. They split the head-to-head, so the next tiebreaker would be cumulative point differential which we don’t know at this time because both teams have too many games remaining.
Up Next
Seattle will look to get back on track as they face the Atlanta Dream next Friday. After playing five road games in eight days, the Storm will play their third game in 11 days when they face the Dream at home on Friday, July 2nd. The game will air nationally on Twitter and locally on JoeTV at 7:00 PM. Seattle beat the Dream in two games in Atlanta back in early June. But they were without Chennedy Carter who was out with an elbow injury. Carter is expected to be back for this game.
Editor’s Note: Thank you for your support! If you know any Storm fans that aren’t currently aware of my coverage through Substack and Twitter (@WNBAStormChaser), please let them know. Word of mouth can be super helpful and is greatly appreciated! Photo Credits to Neil Enns/Seattle Storm/WNBA Photography.