Pros and Cons to trading Natasha Howard

The Storm have put the core designation on Natasha Howard, but would they consider trading her?

The Seattle Storm made their first big move in free agency assigning the Core designation tag to Natasha Howard. This prevents Howard from leaving the Storm and signing with any of the 11 other WNBA teams this offseason.

This means that Howard will either work out a long-term deal with the Storm to stay in Seattle or at a minimum, play the 2021 season with the team while earning the supermax salary of $221,450. If it’s the latter, it will come at a certain cost.

We already know due to salary cap restraints that the Storm won’t be able to bring back everyone from their 2020 Championship season. But if Natasha Howard is signed on just for the 2021 season at the supermax salary and Sue Bird also returns on a similar deal, Seattle is going to have to make some sacrifices to the roster.

That could be as extreme as losing Alysha Clark in free agency. Or it could mean losing Sami Whitcomb and having to cut another player or two like Crystal Langhorne or Morgan Tuck.

In my previous article projecting the Storm’s 2021 roster, there is a way for Seattle to retain their starting five (that means keeping Howard, Bird, and Clark); but it also requires the Storm to play with just 11 players instead of 12. It would also require going young with their bench, keeping players that are on rookie-scale contracts.

But there could be another option. One I’ve seen a time or two while browsing the Twitter timeline. The front office could make the difficult decision to trade Natasha Howard this offseason. A move that would likely decrease the Storm’s title chances in 2021, but could give them a lot more flexibility over the next few years.

Let’s discuss the potential pros and cons of trading Natasha Howard this offseason.

Pros:

Trading Natasha Howard this offseason could certainly have its benefits. Although, I don’t believe they would make the Storm better in 2021. But a good General Manager often has to plan things out multiple years in advance. Often solely focusing on a single season can lead to mortgaging the future.

Alisha Valavanis and the Storm front office were smart to put the core designation tag on Howard. If she’s interested in playing for a different team other than Seattle, it allows the Storm to be able to recoup assets instead of just letting her walk for nothing. The worst thing Seattle could let happen would be Natasha Howard leaving the team and not receiving any compensation for losing their All-Star.

While we don’t know exactly what those assets would be, looking back at other big WNBA trades in recent seasons can give us a general idea of what we could expect.

In 2020, there were three players that were given the Core (franchise) tag. Two of those three players (Skylar Diggins-Smith and Tina Charles) were both traded before the 2020 season started.

Diggins-Smith was traded to the Phoenix Mercury from the Dallas Wings for 3 first-round picks (5th and 7th overall in 2020, and 1st round pick in 2021). Diggins-Smith is a four-time All-Star and was named to the All-WNBA 2nd Team in 2020. It was her fourth time being on the All-WNBA 1st or 2nd Team.

The next one is convoluted but bear with me. Tina Charles was given the Core designation by the New York Libery but then traded to Washington Mystics for 12th overall pick (Washington’s 1st round), 9th and 15th overall picks from Dallas (1st and 2nd round picks). New York also received Taylor Hill (from Dallas) and Shatori Walker-Kimbrough (from Washington). The Liberty also received the Mystics 2nd and 3rd round picks of 2021. Dallas received Washington’s 1st round pick from Washington in 2021, and New York’s 2nd round pick in 2021.

That same offseason, DeWanna Bonner was traded from the Phoenix Mercury to the Connecticut Sun for three first-round picks. This included the 7th and 10th overall picks in 2020 and the Sun’s first-round pick in 2021. The Mercury would turn around and use one of those first-round picks to trade for Diggins-Smith referenced above.

In 2019, Liz Cambage traded to Las Vegas for Moriah Jefferson (2016’s 2nd overall pick) and forward Isabelle Harrison. Las Vegas also included the team’s 2020 first and second-round picks as part of the deal to Dallas.

Dating back a little further in 2014, on draft night, the Seattle Storm traded away their 7th overall pick (Bria Hartley) and their 2013 first-round pick (6th overall) Tianna Hawkins to the Washington Mystics for two-time All-Star Crystal Langhorne.

Taking a glance at the teams at the top of the draft, Seattle could attempt to trade Howard to one of the teams in the Top 5. The Dallas Wings could be an attractive trading partner as they have three first-round picks for the 2nd year in a row and may be looking to bring in a veteran/established player by moving some of those picks. The Wings currently hold the 2nd, 5th, and 7th picks in the 2021 WNBA Draft. They also hold the 13th and 16th overall picks (1st and 4th picks of the 2nd round).

The Wings have missed the playoffs the past two seasons and could use a boost to take that next step. Dallas was also the 2nd worst defensive team in the league last season and could use the addition of the 2019 DPOY.

Could the Storm get the 5th and 7th or 2nd and 13th/16th overall picks for Natasha Howard? Possibly.

The New York Liberty could use a talented post player, especially if they lose Amanda Zahui B. in free agency this offseason. But would they be willing to trade their #1 overall pick to the Storm for Howard? Probably not. But the Storm would have to seriously consider it if the Liberty made that offer.

The Atlanta Dream have the 3rd and 15th (3rd in the 2nd round) overall picks and could be an option to trade with Seattle. In 2018, the Dream were the best defensive team in the league. In 2020, they were the third-worst. And while the team already has quite a few options at PF/C including Elizabeth Williams, Kalani Brown, and Monique Billings, none of them are as talented overall as Natasha Howard.

Lastly, the Indiana Fever own the 4th and 14th overall picks in the 2021 WNBA Draft. The Fever actually had the league’s worst defensive rating (111.8) this past season. They also struggle offensively finishing with the 8th best offensive rating (101.6). Despite investing recent drafts in post players Teaira McCowan and Lauren Cox, the Fever could certainly benefit from adding a veteran All-Star in Howard to their roster.

Ultimately, if the Storm do decide to trade Natasha Howard for draft picks, they need to make sure they are hitting on those picks. If they can acquire an All-Star level player that would be on a rookie scale contract for the next 3+ seasons then the deal could be the best decision for Seattle in the long-term.

The dilemma for the Storm is that if they sign both Natasha Howard and Alysha Clark to near max level deals this offseason, they are going to run a high risk of losing another top-quality player again next season. In 2022, Breanna Stewart, Jewell Loyd, Jordin Canada, and Mercedes Russell will all be free agents. They might lose at least one of those four players next season if both Howard and Clark sign multiple-year deals this offseason.

The front office will have to decide if they’d be better off trading Howard this offseason to acquire cheaper assets (Draft picks) and freeing up salary cap space for next season.

Cons:

Despite the recent success for the Seattle Storm winning two titles in the past three seasons, I don’t believe anyone inside the organization would take those championships for granted. Certainly, not Sue Bird who has played in the WNBA since 2002 and won her third championship nearly 10 years after winning her second title.

Bird won’t be playing in Seattle forever. In fact, 2021 could be her final season. Trading away Natasha Howard would not be a net positive for the Storm in 2021. That would be a move that could potentially benefit them in the years 2022 and beyond.

Seattle’s best chance to win another championship in 2021 is running back as much of their core as possible. That means keeping their starting five and bringing Jordin Canada, Mercedes Russell, and Ezi Magbegor off the bench.

Beyond that, Natasha Howard has been a perfect fit with the Storm. She complements Breanna Stewart in the frontcourt exceptionally well. This allows Stewart to not exert all of her energy on the defensive end so that she can focus on being a dominant scorer on the offensive side of the ball.

Howard is one of the best defenders in the league (winning the DPOY ward in 2019) and often takes on the opposing team’s best post player. In fact, according to Advanced Stats, Howard had the best Defensive Rating on the team (89.2), even better than Alysha Clark (90.9)!

Howard also runs the floor better than most Centers in the league which is a perfect fit for Seattle’s up-tempo offense that Bird and Canada want to run. She also shot 35% from three-point range in 2020, allowing Seattle to stretch the floor.

Howard has shined during her three seasons in Seattle. Blossoming into an All-Star, winning the Most Improved Player award in 2018 and in 2019 proved she could even be a team’s number one option leading the team in multiple statistical categories.

Howard is only 29 years old, entering the league just one season before Jewell Loyd. She is still right in the prime of her career and likely will be for the next 3-5 years. Even if Seattle ultimately loses some key pieces on their team, building around the three core pieces of Breanna Stewart, Jewell Loyd, and Natasha Howard would not be a terrible way to take this franchise over the next five years.

Howard is arguably the Storm’s 2nd best player on the team behind Breanna Stewart. She had the 2nd best PIE (Player Impact Estimate) on the team in 2020 at 13.4 and led the team in 2019 with a PIE of 15.8. For comparison, Breanna Stewart’s PIE was 17.8 in 2020 and 19.2 during her MVP season in 2018.

PIE is an all-encompassing stat that measures a player's overall statistical contribution.

My personal opinion is that it would be best to build the Storm franchise around Breanna Stewart, Jewell Loyd, and Natasha Howard. Ideally, you keep as many pieces together as you can that have won you the championships in 2018 and 2020. But they’ll have to lose a couple of good players over the next year or two. Hopefully, they are able to reload with good draft picks as they did with Ezi Magbegor.

With that said, I can see why some people have suggested trading Howard and if Storm President and GM Alisha Valavanis is able to get a King’s (or Queen’s) Ransom for Howard, the deal might be too tempting to pass up.

Let me know what you think Storm fans! Should the Storm try to trade Howard now to free up salary cap space and acquire draft picks? Or should they sign her to a long-term deal to build around her, Stewart, and Loyd?  

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