How Gabby Williams May Impact the Storm

Williams is set to join the Storm midway through the season.

The Will-She, Won’t-She, or Will-She play in the WNBA saga is officially over for Gabby Williams. On July 3rd, the Seattle Storm announced that Gabby Williams has re-signed with the team for the remainder of the 2023 WNBA season.

After much fan demand that started during the off-season and kept going until the day the deal was public, Storm fans can finally rejoice. And I will be the first to admit I was wrong. I had my doubts that a deal would get done. It wasn’t because I didn’t believe there was mutual interest from both parties. It was more due to the words Gabby had to say at the end of last season. She expressed disappointment at the end of the year, discussing how much she was enjoying her time with the 2022 Storm roster, and was sad their time was coming to an end right when they were starting to really gel together.

“Complicated. It’s Complicated. I think the Prioritization Rule was something I don’t think people realized; I realized as soon as it was going on. I felt like I was in the Twilight Zone. Does anyone not realize what this is actually going to do? I think I knew because I knew (for) players like me, what it was going to do. The money doesn’t touch what we make in Europe. That’s just the truth of it. I’m young, I have to make those kinds of (hard) decisions. I hope it doesn’t bite too many teams in the back later on. It might. My schedule isn’t definitive right now. It all depends on the playoffs. I would love to return to the WNBA. But what’s best for my career? What the WNBA decided to do to players like me. It makes it complicated.” Williams expressed her frustration during her Exit Interview at the conclusion of the 2022 season.

I knew that the Prioritization Rule that was going into effect for the 2023 season would prove to be a major obstacle for Williams's return. Richard Cohen, of Her Hoops Stats, did a good job explaining the Prioritization Rules in the article linked here.

Reading over the rules, it does appear that the Storm and Williams’ Agent may have found a workaround to get this deal done midway through the WNBA season.

Both parties have expressed excitement about the reunion.

“We are excited to have Gabby back with us. Her veteran leadership and work ethic add so much value as we continue our development this season. Gabby’s offensive versatility and ability to play and guard multiple positions will make an immediate impact. Adding another level of scoring and boost to our defense.” Coach Quinn said in a statement.

Gabby echoed that sentiment.

“It feels so good to be back in Seattle! I’m really excited to be able to join the team again and I can’t wait to get started. I’m just so ready to get back to work with the girls and the staff and look forward to finishing the season strong.” Williams added.

Now that the deal is official, I’m going to discuss what impact (good and bad) this may have on the Storm moving forward.

The Positives

Adding Gabby Williams is no doubt going to make the Seattle Storm a better team in 2023. Williams is an extremely versatile player that can essentially play every single position on the court besides Center. Coach Quinn uses a system that tries to eliminate strict positions and allows players just to play.

It’s why we’ve seen Sami Whitcomb, a more traditional Shooting Guard play Point Guard at times this season. Or how Jordan Horston, a tall Guard in college, plays the Power Forward position in the WNBA. Williams's versatility will allow her to come in and play whatever role is needed. Coach Quinn will be able to utilize several different lineups depending on which players are playing their best.

Seattle’s defense has struggled a fair amount this season. Early on, they ranked as the worst team in the WNBA and currently rank 9th (out of 12) with a Defensive Rating of 105.1. Williams is one of the league’s best wing defenders. Gabby earned second-team All-Defense honors in 2022 as one of the 10 best defensive players in the W.

The reason Gabby is so versatile isn’t just because she’s an excellent defender. She is an elite athlete that excels at getting downhill and attacking the rim. While not a true point guard, Williams does have a sharp passing ability. She does a great job of finding her teammates and her ability to attack also helps open up her teammates for easier shots.

The team has also struggled with rebounding this season and Williams is a strong rebounder for being only 5’11”. Her athleticism allows her to sky above many other players. She averaged 7.5 PPG, 5.0 RPG, and 3.1 APG with the Storm last year.

If you are a Storm season ticket, there is more to be excited about with Gabby’s return. Seattle has won just two out of 11 games at home so far this season. Not only can Williams potentially turn a couple more losses into wins, but she is also a natural highlight machine.

https://twitter.com/seattlestorm/status/1675961590833897472

The Concerns

With all the impressive qualities Gabby possesses what would be the concerns of her signing?

The first thing I would say is that fans should keep their expectations in check. Adding Gabby to the roster isn’t the equivalent of adding a player like Breanna Stewart or Tina Charles. Williams can do a lot of positive things for the team she’s on. But she’s never averaged more than 7.7 PPG in a single season of the WNBA. If the expectation is that she’ll come in and start scoring around 13-15 PPG, fans will be disappointed.

Seattle is currently the second-worst team in the league. Both from a record (4-12) and from a Net Rating standpoint where they score a -8.2 (Negative) Rating. Once Gabby starts playing with Seattle, I’m not certain her impact will be large enough to take the second-worst team in the league and turn them into a playoff contender. They would have to leapfrog at least three other WNBA teams.

And if they did manage to do that. Is anyone excited to watch the Storm in a playoff series against the 15-1 Las Vegas Aces? Seattle is currently 0-2 against Las Vegas and the Aces have won both games by an average of 37 points!

If you’ve been a fan of the Storm for at least 10 years, think back to the 2015 season. With the team struggling and not likely to make the playoffs, were you more excited about the idea of that team facing the Minnesota Lynx (eventual champions) in the playoffs or were you more excited about the development of Jewell Loyd and the possibility of drafting Breanna Stewart to join her?

Seattle’s odds this season to land the #1 overall pick in 2024 are low even if they finish with the worst record in the league. This is due to the fact they had 22 wins last season and the league combines two-year records when dealing out lottery odds. While Gabby probably won’t make a large enough impact to turn Seattle into a playoff team, she might help them win enough games to turn them from the second-worst record to the fourth-worst in the WNBA.

Even still, the lottery percentages are still just that. A percentage chance. Over a two-year span, the team with the worst record has a 44% chance to land the #1 overall pick. The remaining odds are 2nd (28%), 3rd (18%), and 4th (10%).

It’s not unusual to see teams move up. This past lottery, the Lynx had just a 10% chance to win but moved up to #2 overall. For the 2022 draft, the Washington Mystics had the third-best odds (18%) and ended up with the #1 overall pick.

The 2024 Draft Class is loaded with talent. Landing a Top 4 selection should be able to help any WNBA team turn their fortunes around but the #1 pick could be franchise-changing.

There are other issues to think about too. This season is a lot more about playing young players and developing them for the team’s future. We’ve already seen that play out with Ezi Magbegor, at 23 years old, named to her first WNBA All-Star team.

One large concern I have with Gabby coming back is how it may affect the development of rookie Jordan Horston. At this point, Horston’s greatest attributes to the team are her defense and rebounding. Two things that Gabby Williams is well known for. While not an exceptional scorer, Gabby is currently a better offensive player than Horston.

I don’t think Gabby will start immediately but eventually, she will likely battle with Kia Nurse for the starting Small Forward position. She may also fill in to backup Jewell Loyd at the Shooting Guard. Horston is now at best probably third on the depth chart at either the two or the three.

Joyner Holmes has started the past two games at Power Forward. If Mercedes Russell works her way back into the starting lineup that would move Ezi Magbegor to the four, possibly Joyner as her backup, and Jordan now third on the depth chart at that position as well.

Many fans witnessed and expressed frustration when Ezi Magbegor’s playing time and development were stunted midway through last season after the organization added Tina Charles to the roster. We could see something similar happen to Jordan.

In a season, where team wins aren’t going to be the priority. I’d hate to see rookies like Horston lose significant playing time to other veterans.

That brings me to my last point. By signing a contract with the Storm for the rest of this season, Gabby Williams is no longer a Restricted Free Agent. Starting in 2024, she will be an Unrestricted Free Agent allowed to sign with any WNBA team (or none).

Williams is just 26 years old. She certainly is a player a team could plan to build around. However, with the Prioritization Rules still playing a major impact on players like Williams and the fact that Gabby will now be an UFA in 2024 it’s unclear what the future holds for her and the franchise.

There are a lot of “ifs” here, but if the Storm miss the playoffs, but also hurt their draft lottery odds, lose Gabby after this season, and stunt the growth of other younger players - was this move worth it?

We will find out in the coming months. For now, fans can just enjoy watching a dynamic athlete do some amazing things on a basketball court.

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