Dallas, Ogunbowale get revenge on Seattle 68-67 (Free Edition)
A reversal of fortunes as the Wings hit a last-second three-pointer to beat Seattle by one.
(Everett, WA) - What’s that old famous saying? If you play with fire, you’re going to get burned. That sums up Seattle’s season so far, especially in their matchups against the Dallas Wings. The Storm have beaten the Wings in two games by a combined six points (both in OT). On Friday night, Seattle was fortunate that a three at the end of regulation by Satou Sabally was changed to a two-point basket. The change meant the game went into overtime instead of a one-point loss in regulation. Seattle has been on the right end of several close games this season. Ultimately, on Sunday afternoon, their luck ran out as Arike Ogunbowale finished the game on a personal 8-0 run to defeat the Storm 68-67. Ogunbowale knocked down back-to-back three-pointers in the final 35 seconds of the game with the final one going through the net with less than one second remaining in the game.
Dallas Wings Head Coach Vickie Johnson felt justification for the way things ended on Friday.
“Oh yeah, for sure. I mean, it's only fair because they beat us with a three to win and we wanted to return the favor. Arike [Ogunbowale] is amazing. Big shots after big shots and I tried to send her to the corner, but she refused to go to the corner. She just wanted the ball and to make it happen. Very proud of her and she was the leader. She's a leader. Every day, she's showing that, not only offensively, but defensively as well.” Coach Johnson said after the game.
Storm Head Coach Noelle Quinn added her thoughts after the loss.
“It is not the outcome we wanted, but the energy was there. Arike [Ogunbowale] took a highly contested shot and we know she is a tough shot maker. Just down the stretch our possessions in the offensive end we were not really converting. Overall, I’ll say this again, Dallas is a talented team. We didn't lose today to a team that doesn't have firepower all around. They played hard. Hats off to them. And again, we're learning, we're getting information from these games early on in the season, and hopefully, it'll pay off mid-season and towards the end of our season.” Coach Noelle Quinn told the media during the post-game press conference.
With the loss, Seattle falls to 7-2 on the season and drops to the 2nd overall seed in the WNBA. The Connecticut Sun (8-2) move back up to number one. The loss is disheartening because they had a seven-point lead with two minutes to play in the game while playing in front of their home fans. The team now heads out on a long road trip where they will play five games against Atlanta, Connecticut, and Indiana before returning back home.
Dallas improved to 3-5 on the season. Coach Noelle Quinn has mentioned multiple times that the Wings are significantly better than their record has shown so far (2-5 heading into Sunday).
The biggest problem in this game outside of letting the Wings score the final eight points to close out the game was that Seattle just got absolutely nothing outside of their big three. And even Breanna Stewart had a disappointing game by her standards - 14 points on 5-15 FG shooting. Jewell Loyd was once again the best player on the court for Seattle scoring a game-high 25 points on 7-16 shooting. Loyd also went to the foul line 10 times knocking down nine of her attempts. Sue Bird had a very solid game with 13 points, seven rebounds, and five assists. No other player had more than four points.
After both Stephanie Talbot and Mercedes Russell had their best games of the season on Friday against Dallas (Talbot 21 points and Russell 12 points and nine rebounds) they both really struggled on Sunday afternoon. Talbot went 1-5 from the floor and scored just three points. Russell finished the game with zero points on 0-2 FG shooting from the floor and just four rebounds.
The bench also struggled mightily. Candice Dupree scored zero points on 0-3 field goal shooting, Jordin Canada also had zero points on 0-3 FG. Katie Lou Samuelson had four points on 1-4 from the floor. Samuelson (2-4) and Ezi Magbegor (0-2) both struggled from the foul line and had four of Seattle’s six missed free throws. In a game that ended up being a one-point loss, those missed free throws were critical.
Kennedy Burke was really the only bench player that played well. Burke finished the game with four points in just five minutes. She knocked down her only shot and connected on both of her free throw attempts.
Dallas also struggled in this game but did just enough to pull off the win. Arike Ogunbowale was the primary reason they stayed in the game (and eventually won it) leading the team with 24 points on 7-19 FG shooting. She was also a perfect 7-7 from the foul line. Marina Mabrey 15 points, seven rebounds and Isabelle Harrison added 14 points and a game-high eight rebounds off the bench for Dallas to lift them over Seattle.
The Wings also had players that struggled. Satou Sabally coming off an 18-point performance on Friday had just two points on 0-8 FG shooting.
Both teams shot awful in this game. Potentially a result of playing an OT game just two days ago on Friday. Dallas shot 36% (25-70 FG) and just 23% (5-22) from beyond the arc. The Storm were even worse! Seattle shot 34% (21-61), but did connect on 33% (8-24) of their three-pointers. The Wings were a perfect 13-13 from the charity stripe while Seattle finished 17-23. Dallas also outrebounded Seattle 42-34 which certainly kept them in the game while they were trailing.
Coach Vickie Johnson spoke at length about what the win meant for her team during the post-game press conference.
“Seattle is a great championship team. They have three superstars and they have great role players. The one thing I told my team today was I'm tired of people saying that we're young. When you're looking at Las Vegas and Phoenix, if you look at the stats, across the board, defensively, offensively—we're right there with them. So, it's a matter of really being disciplined and consistent in what we do as a team and we hold our own destiny. Nobody has blown us out. We lost because we didn't make free throws the last game. And then we turned the ball over and we didn't get big stops. If we can determine and we can control that then we can determine the outcome, the winning, and losing. The one thing I tell my team, more than anything, is: play your minutes and play hard, and whatever happens at the end, happens at the end. At the end of the day, when you play your minutes, don't worry about who starts. Trust me, the last five minutes of the game, I'm going to make the right decision for our team to win. Whoever that is, I'm willing to make the sacrifice and I'm willing to take the criticism. I'm willing to do whatever I feel that's the best for our team. I don't coach players. I coach a team. And that's what I'm most focused on -- our team, and building and playing the right way, as a team.” Coach Johnson said.
Game Breakdown
After both teams started Friday’s game blazing hot scoring 62 points combined in the first quarter we had a much different game on Sunday afternoon. Both teams struggled immensely with their scoring. Seattle especially who scored just 24 points in the first and fourth quarters combined on Sunday after scoring 34 points in the first quarter alone two days prior.
Seattle shot an abysmal 17.6% from the floor (3-17) during the opening quarter of the game. They were fortunate that Dallas wasn’t much better (27% on 6-22 FG). Dallas led 17-13 after one.
The Storm’s best quarter came in the 2nd period where they outscored the Wings 20-11. They were active defensively getting their hands up and deflecting passes and getting steals which led to some fastbreak opportunities. Seattle shot 50% (7-14 FG) in the quarter and forced Dallas into five turnovers.
The home team led by five points at the midway point 33-28. Sue Bird was the team’s leading scorer with 11 points. Arike Ogunbowale led the Wings with nine points in the first half. Both teams struggled with their offense with Seattle shooting 32% (10-31) and Dallas was even worse at 29% (10-34) including an awful 1-10 from beyond the arc.
Jewell Loyd started the 2nd half attacking the basket and getting to the foul line. Loyd sank both free throws, then Sue knocked down a mid-range jumper coming off a screen. Lastly, Seattle got a steal and a fast break with Bird dumping a pass off to Loyd for the layup to give Seattle an 11-point lead at 39-28.
Marina Mabrey gave Dallas a boost knocking down multiple shots in the third and scoring nine points in the quarter. She helped to keep the Wings within striking distance.
Loyd caught fire in the third period scoring 14 points to push Seattle’s lead to 12 up 54-42. It would be Seattle’s largest lead of the game. It wouldn’t last long.
The Wings cut Seattle’s 12-point lead to seven at the end of the third quarter. Dallas started the fourth quarter on a 7-0 run to tie the game at 56-56.
Seattle didn’t score at all in the final period until the six-minute mark. Seattle’s bench continues to struggle. If the Storm’s Big 3 (Stewart, Bird, and Loyd) are not in the game the team can’t seem to score at all. This is a major concern moving forward as they need players who can consistently score. You’d think they’d get that from Candice Dupree or Katie Lou Samuelson but right now they are not.
With Seattle leading 67-60 and two minutes to play in the game, the Storm would have a late-game collapse that would cost them dearly. Seattle missed five shots to end the game including Stewart’s final attempt at the buzzer. Meanwhile, Ogunbowale scored eight straight points drawing a foul driving into the lane for two free throws and then back-to-back shots from beyond the arc. The final being the nail in the coffin for Seattle with less than a second to play in the game to give Dallas the 68-67 victory.
Seattle’s 4th quarter was eerily similar to their awful 1st quarter. Scoring just 11 points on 20% (3-15 FG) shooting.
Additional Analysis
I think Seattle’s 7-1 record entering Sunday’s contest has been a little fluky. It’s not to say that the Storm are a bad team. They are certainly one of the best in the league still despite losing key pieces in the offseason. But they’ve been on the winning side of several close games. They could have easily lost their road game against Minnesota. They could have easily lost either of the two Dallas games where they won in OT. They could have fallen to a very game Connecticut Sun team and yet they managed to escape with a victory. This Seattle team is very good, but they aren’t so dominant as they were in 2020 where they were clearly head and shoulders above the competition.
If you look into Advanced Stats, the Storm currently hold the 3rd best Net rating at 5.7. The Connecticut Sun and Las Vegas Aces share the best Net rating at 11.5. To put that in a little more perspective, Seattle’s Net rating in 2020 was 15.0 and in 2018 it was 9.2 (both topped the WNBA in their respective seasons).
Despite their losing record (3-5), the Dallas Wings are 4th in Net rating this season at 0.7. They also currently have the third-best scoring average at 87.6 PPG. This lends credence to Coach Quinn’s comments about Dallas being significantly better than their losing record.
This game notwithstanding, Seattle is a very good offensive team. They average the 2nd most points per game 88.8 PPG and have the third-best offensive rating at 104. Their defensive rating has improved quite a bit over the past few games and is now down to 98.3 which is 5th best in the league.
Coaches and players like Sue Bird have spoken about growing pains with this 2021 team. When you start the season 7-1, the initial reaction is to say “What growing pains? You’re the number one team in the league!”
But the team has struggled. In the first handful of games, we saw an uncharacteristic amount of turnovers. Players throwing the ball out of bounds after one player would cut to the basket and the passing player thought they were popping up top. While a lot of those unforced errors have been since resolved in recent games. There are still plenty of warts on this team.
The bench is a mess right now. The team needs to get scoring from Candice Dupree, Jordin Canada, and Katie Lou Samuelson. The three of them combined for just four points on Sunday afternoon against Dallas (all coming from Samuelson). Dupree and Samuelson combined for just two points on 1-9 FG shooting on Friday night as well. Those two players were specifically brought to Seattle for their scoring abilities and they are not living up to expectations right now.
Canada is really struggling offensively this season. She’s had a couple of strong games, but overall she is averaging the lowest point total of her career at just 5.3 PPG. The last five games from Jordin have been bowling shoe ugly. She’s scored 0, 2, 6, 0, and 0 in these games.
While Jordin has never been a strong outside shooter, her field goal percentage is also at a career-low this season at under 32%. From my observations, she’s also not slashing to the rim nearly as much as she has in the past. Jordin is best when she is aggressively attacking the basket and finishing at the rim or drawing the foul. For whatever reason, we’ve seen a lot less of that this season. Canada did stop playing overseas early due to an injury this year, but my understanding was that she had recovered in time for the WNBA season. It is possible that the injury could be lingering and could be limiting her.
If Seattle’s bench doesn’t start improving quickly they’re either going to have to find some different rotations that do work or we’re going to see a lot more low-scoring games like Sunday that result in losses.
Lastly, is it far-fetched to say Jewell Loyd has been Seattle’s best player this season? Maybe it’s just me, but something seems a little bit off with Breanna Stewart right now. She’s missing more free throws at the foul line than I’m used to seeing and her three-point shooting has been sub-par. The statistics back that up as she’s shooting 77% from the foul line (12% lower than last season!) and 32.7% from beyond the arc (4% lower than 2020).
Stewart’s scoring average, currently a career-high 22.2 PPG, is a bit deceptive as well. It’s elevated by four games where she’s scored 36, 28, 28, and 26 points. But in four other games, she’s had just 17, 15, 14, and 13 points. In 2020, Stewie had just two games (during the 22-game regular season) where she scored under 15 points. She’s already had two in the first nine games this year.
Maybe the reason for her offensive struggles has to do with her playing too many minutes. She’s currently averaging 35.1 MPG this season which would be the highest of her WNBA career if that continues throughout the rest of the year. It may also have to do with the fact that she’s certainly having to work much harder on the defensive side of the ball without Natasha Howard there to help defend and rebound.
Her shot, especially on her three is a bit off and it could be because she’s trying to do too much out there. She’s not getting enough rest due to the struggles of the bench.
Speaking with her after the game she held herself accountable and talked about how she needs to be better with her individual play.
Getting back to Loyd because I don’t want this entire article to be filled with negativity. Jewell is having the best season of her career and I think you can make the argument that she has been Seattle’s best player.
There’s obviously a long, long way to go before the end of the season, but Jewell is currently setting career-highs in points (20.7 PPG), assists (4.8 APG), steals (1.6 SPG), Field Goal percentage (47%), and 3-PT Field Goal percentage (43%). Loyd is currently in the Top 10 in points, assists, and steals throughout the WNBA.
I asked Sue Bird to talk about Jewell’s outstanding performance so far this season.
“I think Jewell [Loyd] is just continuing her play from last season. I think last season, because we had, in my opinion, the MVP in our team—you know, Stewie playing amazing, you didn't always get to talk about Jewell as much as we should have. And she's just really continuing that play, and she's just getting maturity with age, getting more and more comfortable on the court, and just more comfortable with who she is as a player and taking advantage of things out there. But you can just tell her plays are rising, her confidence is rising and that has been happening, it's not just a 2021 thing.” Sue Bird told me after Sunday’s game.
Loyd has taken her play to near MVP levels and it’s wonderful to see!
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