Around the W: The Playoffs Begin!
Eight teams vying for one championship and it all begins today!
The WNBA Playoffs Are Set!
With the regular season ending this weekend we now know who’s in and who’s out. The four lottery teams will be the Indiana Fever (5-31), the LA Sparks (13-23), the Atlanta Dream (14-22), and the Minnesota Lynx (14-22).
For Minnesota, it is the first time the team has missed the playoffs since 2010. It also marked the end of Sylvia Fowles’ impressive career. Minnesota gave a valiant effort in Connecticut on Sunday, at one point cutting the lead down to four points late in the game. But the Sun’s Curt Miller put all of his starters back in to finish the job and come away with the victory. The victory meant nothing to Connecticut who was already locked into the third overall seed no matter the outcome but it did matter to Minnesota who had to say goodbye to their former MVP.
Because the Lynx finished 3rd overall last season, they will have the worst odds of the four lottery teams to land the #1 pick. However, the Mystics won the lottery last year so you just never know!
For Atlanta, it was a disappointing end to an otherwise fun season. For almost the entire year, the Dream had been one of the top eight teams and looked like they were on their way to the playoffs for the first time since 2018. However, they lost eight of their final ten games dropping them out of playoff contention.
The good news for the Dream is that because of their poor season last year and their late-season collapse, they will actually have the second-best odds to win the Draft Lottery and land the #1 overall pick. Adding Aliyah Boston to their young core of Rhyne Howard, Aari McDonald, and Naz Hillmon would give Atlanta a huge boost moving forward.
The LA Sparks really have the worst outlook. They’ve missed the playoffs in back-to-back seasons and traded away their first-round picks over those two years as well. Their 2023 pick was sent to Atlanta to acquire Chennedy Carter. That pick was then sent to the Washington Mystics when Atlanta swapped picks this year to acquire Rhyne Howard. A year after they won the WNBA Draft lottery, the Mystics will have a chance to win it again in 2023.
Indiana has never won the draft lottery. They’ve also really struggled since Tamika Catchings retired following the 2016 season. The Fever have missed the playoffs in six straight seasons and in three of those years have finished with the worst record in the WNBA. No franchise needs to win the lottery more than Indiana.
With the lottery teams now covered, let’s take a look at the four playoff matchups.
#1 seed versus #8 seed
The Las Vegas Aces (26-10) will battle against the Phoenix Mercury (15-21).
After finishing the season 8-2 over their final 10 games including key wins over the Chicago Sky and the Seattle Storm, the Aces were able to secure the #1 overall seed. They will have home-court advantage throughout the entire playoffs. They easily swept the Phoenix Mercury back in May.
Aces 106 - Mercury 88
Aces 86 - Mercury 74
Aces 100 - Mercury 80
Without Brittney Griner, Diana Taurasi, and Skylar Diggins-Smith the Aces should have an easy time winning this series and will most likely sweep both games in Las Vegas.
It has been confirmed that Skylar Diggins-Smith and Diana Taurasi will both miss at least Game 1. Taurasi is dealing with a quad injury and Diggins-Smith has left to the team for “personal reasons”. Without them, the Mercury have no chance.
#2 seed versus #7 seed
The Chicago Sky (26-10) will face the New York Liberty (16-20).
Chicago won the season series three games to one against New York this season. However, most of the games were pretty close.
Sky 83 - Liberty 50
Sky 88 - Liberty 86
Liberty 83 - Sky 80
Sky 89 - Liberty 81
New York actually finished the regular season with some good momentum winning seven out of their final 10 games. That was actually better than the Sky who finished 6-4. The Liberty will look to pull off the shocking upset but the Sky are trying to become the first team since the 2001-2002 LA Sparks to win back-to-back WNBA Championships.
I certainly could see New York pulling off the upset. The team has enough talent and good shooters to possibly get hot at the right time and win a shorter (3-game) series against Chicago. With that said, the Sky have looked like an elite team most of this season, even if they dropped a few games in the month of August. I expect the defending champs to move on in this round.
#3 seed versus #6 seed
It’ll be the Connecticut Sun (25-11) against the Dallas Wings (18-18).
This could be one of the more interesting first-round matchups as the underdog Dallas Wings actually won the season series 2-1 over Connecticut.
Wings 85 - Sun 77
Sun 99 - Wings 68
Wings 82 - Sun 71
However, it should be noted that Arike Ogunbowale played in all three of those games and will not be available in this playoff series after suffering a hip injury. She underwent an iliac crest core muscle avulsion repair and will likely miss the rest of the season including the playoffs. There is a chance she could return if they advance deep into the playoffs but won’t be available against Connecticut.
The Sun actually finished with the best Net Rating (9.5) at the conclusion of this season. That’s important because the WNBA team that ended with the league’s best Net Rating has won the WNBA Championship in four out of the past five seasons (2017-2021). Dating all the way back to 2010, the eventual champion had either the #1 Net Rating (9 times) or the #2 overall Net Rating (2 times). Only the 2021 Chicago Sky bucked that trend as they finished 6th in Net Rating before going on to win the title.
This year Connecticut is #1 (9.5) and the Las Vegas Aces finished #2 (7.7).
Connecticut has never won the WNBA title but they have been one of the top contenders for several years now. I think a lot of people are counting them out and maybe it’s because they always seem to play better in the regular season than in the playoffs. It certainly wouldn’t surprise me if the Sun were able to sweep this series.
With that said, Teaira McCowan has really stepped her game up this season and she is one of the few players in the WNBA that can bang down low with Brionna Jones and would probably even have the edge.
At times this season, we’ve seen the Wings be a better team without Arike. They are losing a lot of scoring with her out but it is possible they can play better as a unit. I’m hoping this series goes the distance as it has the potential to be a fun series.
#4 seed versus #5 seed
Lastly, the Seattle Storm (22-14) will host the Washington Mystics (22-14) in what is the most exciting matchup on paper. These two teams have won three out of the last four WNBA Championships with the Storm winning in 2018 and 2020 and the Mystics in 2019. These two will face each other in the playoffs for the first time since the 2018 WNBA Finals where Seattle swept them 3-0. Despite pulling off the sweep, Game 2 of that series went down to the wire with the Storm winning by just two points (75-73).
There are a lot of fun storylines for this series. Breanna Stewart and Elena Delle Donne are very comparable players and have both been league MVPs before. Jewell Loyd and Ariel Atkins are both excellent shooting guards who also play for the Team USA Olympic team. And Alysha Clark, after playing nine years with Seattle and winning two championships with the Storm now plays for the Mystics. Instead of shutting down the Mystics’ best scorers, she’ll be trying to shut down Seattle’s.
Both teams finished with the same record but Seattle won the season series two games to one allowing them to have home-court advantage in their playoff matchup.
Storm 85 - Mystics 71
Storm 82 - Mystics 77
Mystics 78 - Storm 75
I spoke with Jewell after the game about earning that home-court advantage and her excitement to play in front of the Storm fans again in the playoffs.
“We definitely wanted to play at home. We wanted to get home-court advantage to play at home. Be home and be in a place that we know so that we can play in front of our fans. Any advantage is a plus in the playoffs, being at home to start, it gives us energy and gives us a push.” Loyd answered.
This playoff series is the most likely to feature an “upset” as the Mystics are a very good team and overall much better than the 6th through 8th seeds that are also in the playoffs. The deciding game, Game 3 (if necessary), will be played in Washington D.C. so the Storm’s best chance to move on to the second round is if they’re able to sweep the Mystics, winning both games in Seattle.
Check back here for more coverage of the Storm and the playoffs in general. When we reach the Semi-Finals I’ll post another article discussing the Final Four.
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