Around the W: Mid-Season Report
We've reached the All-Star break, how have teams done compared to expectations?
The WNBA season has officially reached the halfway point as we head into All-Star Weekend. Instead of going through all the games like I normally would, I wanted to do something different. I’m going to discuss how each team has been doing and compare that to expectations entering the season.
Atlanta Dream
2021 Record: 8-24 (11th overall)
Overall Record: 10-12
The Atlanta Dream have been my surprise team through the first half of this season. Coach Tanisha Wright has done a hell of a job in her first year as a head coach. The former Seattle Storm great has done an excellent job of turning the culture around in Atlanta. Since their successful 2018 season, the Dream have had three straight seasons where they’ve been the bottom dwellers of the WNBA. In 2019, they finished with the worst record in the league at 8-26. In 2020, they were the third-worst team finishing 7-15 in the shortened COVID Bubble season. And last year in 2021, they had the second-worst record only ahead of Indiana, finishing 8-24.
They have been much better this year, already winning more games than they have in any of the past three seasons. Currently, they have the 6th best record in the league. With 14 games left they have a great chance to make the playoffs for the first time since 2018 as long as they continue to hover around a .500 record.
After an impressive 90-76 win over the Seattle Storm, I wrote about how I believe Tanisha Wright should win Coach of the Year as long as they continue to have similar success. I don’t believe any of the pundits believed this team was a legit playoff contender this year even with the addition of #1 overall pick Rhyne Howard. But that’s exactly what they’re shaping up to be.
Chicago Sky
2021 Record: 16-16 (6th overall)
Overall Record: 16-6
The defending champions just keep getting better and better! Expectations were high for the Sky after an impressive playoff run leading to the team’s first WNBA Championship in 2021. Through the first three weeks of the season, Chicago was hovering around a .500 record at 4-3 and was slotted as the 7th seed in the standings. Over the past six weeks, they’ve gone 12-3 and moved into the best record in the entire WNBA.
The Sky have won 8 out of their last 10 games. Candace Parker has said that she didn’t expect them to win the title in her first year in Chicago. She knew it would take time to gel. This was evident in the fact they finished 6th overall during the regular season last year. But they did put it all together at the right time and that momentum has been carried into this season.
Chicago has a real legit chance to become the first team to repeat as WNBA champions since the Los Angeles Sparks did it in 2001-2002. The addition of Emma Meesseman has made the team even better this year; along with one of the league’s best surprises Rebekah Gardner, they’ve made the Sky arguably the league’s deepest team. They’ll send Candace Parker, Courtney Vandersloot, Kahleah Copper, and Emma Meesseman to the All-Star game.
They have already matched their win total from last season. This team is meeting or even exceeding expectations so far.
Connecticut Sun
2021 Record: 26-6 (1st overall)
Overall Record: 14-8
Connecticut finished with the league’s best record in 2021 at 26-6. While they haven’t been as dominant this year they’ve still been one of the WNBA’s best teams. For most of the first half of this season, the Sun had been the two seed in the standings. However, after going 6-4 in their last 10 games and the Sky and Storm’s surge they have dropped to fourth place.
The 2021 MVP, Jonquel Jones, hasn’t been playing quite as well as she did last season. But Connecticut still has one of the league’s best frontcourts with Jonquel Jones, Alyssa Thomas, and DeWanna Bonner. Not to mention Brionna Jones who is a legit candidate to win the 6th Player of the Year award.
Jonquel Jones, Brionna Jones, and Alyssa Thomas were all named to the WNBA All-Star team this season for their exceptional play.
Jasmine Thomas tore her ACL early in the season so the Sun will have to overcome another tough injury if they want to finally win their first WNBA Championship.
Connecticut hasn’t been quite as good as last season but if you recall they really turned it on late after the Olympic break winning their final 14 games in a row to claim the top seed in the playoffs. This year, I’m sure they’d trade that top seed if it meant they’d advanced to the WNBA Finals this season.
Dallas Wings
2021 Record: 14-18 (7th overall)
Overall Record: 10-12
Dallas had played well early this season but has really struggled as of late. They’re 4-6 over their past 10 games as they’ve fallen from the middle of the standings to almost completely out of the playoff race. They’re currently holding onto the 8th and final playoff spot but they are trending in the wrong direction. Dallas finished 7th overall last season with a 14-18 record. It was the first time they had made the playoffs in three years.
The Wings have a lot of young talent on their roster but have been dealing with some injuries to Allisha Gray and Satou Sabally that have hurt them during their recent struggles. Speaking of Gray, she was snubbed from the All-Star selections committee. However, her teammate Arike Ogunbowale did make the All-Star team.
From a player personnel standpoint, things haven’t worked out for the Dallas Wings as much as they would have liked. They had three of the first five draft picks in the 2021 WNBA Draft including number one and two overall. The Wings selected Charli Collier, Awak Kuier, and Chelsea Dungee.
Dungee was cut during training camp this year. After playing in 28 games and starting 18 last year, Collier has played in just 13 of the 22 games this season. She’s averaging just four minutes in the games she does get to play in, scoring less than 2 PPG. Kuier is the only player from those three that has shown any promise but even then she’s averaging roughly 3 PPG and 3 RPG in about 13 MPG. Not exactly stellar numbers from the 2nd overall pick. Even if the 2021 WNBA Draft is one of the weaker ones in recent history there are still players that have had a positive impact on their teams. Aari McDonald, Michaela Onyenwere, Dana Evans, Dijonai Carrington, and Didi Richards have all shown enough promise to at least be solid role players if not more. For Dallas to have three of the Top 5 picks and potentially strike out on all 3 is simply atrocious by their scouts, General Manager, and Coach.
If that’s not bad enough, the team ended up parting ways with Moriah Jefferson earlier this season. Since then, she’s gone to the Minnesota Lynx and been incredible. Jefferson is averaging nearly 14 PPG and 5.6 APG in the 16 games with the Lynx.
Up to this point, Dallas is a fringe playoff team and I expected more from them. They can certainly turn their season around and they got a huge victory over Connecticut right before the break. As they get healthy, this team has the potential to get to at least the 6th seed if they have a strong 2nd half.
Indiana Fever
2021 Record: 6-26 (12th overall)
Overall Record: 5-19
Entering this season the Indiana Fever were not expected to be a competitive team and although they actually had a few (surprise) wins early in the season they have started to fall behind the rest of the pack.
While still under former General Manager Tamika Catchings I wasn’t really clear on the team’s plans or directions. The franchise hasn’t reached the playoffs since Catchings retired following the 2016 season. They have been a lottery team in five straight seasons and 2022 will make it six years in a row.
Every franchise has to go through a rebuild at some point. But the Fever have made lottery selections in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022 but have had mixed results.
Kelsey Mitchell who was selected 2nd overall in 2018 has been the Fever’s best player for a while now. Teaira McCowan selected 3rd in 2019 has been a productive player but the team traded her away to Dallas in a somewhat surprising move this offseason.
Indiana didn’t have any All-Star selections this year but Kelsey Mitchell certainly deserved to be one.
The team had less success with Lauren Cox (2020) and Kysre Gondrezick (2021). On paper, Cox was the pick to make and some even had her projected to go 2nd overall that year before she ultimately was selected 3rd by Indiana. She didn’t have as much success as the team would have hoped and they waived her during her 2nd season with the team. Gondrezick was also cut after just one season. There can be a steep learning curve in the WNBA, we’ve seen that with Kelsey Plum and Sabrina Ionescu who both took a couple of years to really show their full potential; so it was a little surprising the Fever had such a short leash with some of their lottery picks.
With that said, after Tamika Catchings stepped down from her role and Lin Dunn stepped in to take over, the team appears to be more on the right track. Dunn ended up having four first-round picks for the 2022 WNBA Draft. She selected NaLyssa Smith (2nd overall), Emily Engstler (4th), Lexie Hull (6th), and Queen Egbo (10th).
Smith has been great and Egbo has been a pleasant surprise. The verdict is still out on Engstler and Hull but the team can use this season to evaluate them.
Right now Indiana is likely to have the best odds to land Aaliyah Boston in the 2023 WNBA Draft. The Fever have never had the #1 overall pick before and Boston would likely be a game-changer for the franchise if she ends up there.
This year is more about growth and development. They’ll have 12 games left after the All-Star break and need to win two games to surpass last season’s record. Whether they do or don’t, they can become big winners if they win the draft lottery!
Las Vegas Aces
2021 Record: 24-8 (2nd overall)
Overall Record: 15-7
Expectations were high for Coach Becky Hammon as she returned to the WNBA taking over for former coach Bill Laimbeer. The Aces were absolutely dominant in the first month of the season. Through 10 games they had the best record in the league at 9-1. In the month of June, they started to come back to Earth as they went 5-4. Now, in the three games in July leading up to the All-Star break, they are just 1-2. Overall, the Aces have lost five out of their last seven games and things are trending in the wrong direction.
With that said, they still finished through the first half of the season with the 2nd best record in the WNBA. In 2021, they finished with the second-best record as well going 24-8. Four of the team’s five starters were named to the All-Star team and they have arguably the best starting five of any team in the league.
Depth is going to be the key question mark moving forward. Kelsey Plum bragged about wanting to play tons of minutes at the beginning of this season and that as players they want to play more. But playing over 30 MPG each and every night starts to wear on you as the season goes on. The high volume the starters had to play through the first month and a half may be the reason the team is struggling now.
Iliana Rupert has been a surprise addition coming over from France to help bolster the team’s bench. She’s played quite well since joining the team a few weeks ago and should be a larger factor moving forward.
I believe the team is right where many expected them to be. Outside of this recent slump, they’ve looked like the best team in the WNBA more often than not. Their depth will be tested as the season goes on. But if they can turn things around they will be a serious contender for the WNBA title this year.
Los Angeles Sparks
2021 Record: 12-20 (10th overall)
Overall Record: 10-12
After a disappointing 2020 season that saw them finish 10th overall, the Los Angeles Sparks made a complete overhaul to their roster. They signed Liz Cambage, Jordan Canada, and Lexie Brown in free agency. They traded Erica Wheeler and multiple draft picks to the Atlanta Dream for Chennedy Carter. Then they made a separate trade sending Gabby Williams to the Seattle Storm in exchange for Katie Lou Samuelson and the Storm’s first-round draft pick.
At the end of the Free Agency period this past offseason, I graded each team’s moves and I honestly felt like no team did more to improve their roster than the Los Angeles Sparks.
However, with a ton of moving pieces and a lot of new faces added to the team it was no real surprise the team struggled out of the gate as most of these players had never played together before and didn’t have a lot of chemistry with one another.
What was a bit surprising was that not even halfway through the season, the LA Sparks parted ways with Head Coach and General Manager Derek Fisher. Everyone knew that if this team was going to succeed that it would take time. But Fisher was not granted that leeway.
But as the first half comes to a close, the team is starting to put things together. They had won three games in a row before getting crushed by the Storm. With their stronger play as of late, they’ve been able to move all the way up to the 7th overall seed in the standings.
Heading into the 2022 season, I felt like the Sparks should be a playoff team but not likely a top contender. So far that appears to be exactly what they are. They are meeting expectations currently and depending on how they do during the 2nd half of the season, that will determine the overall success of the season.
Liz Angeles has been a pretty big disappointment this year. I’m not sure if they’ll want to bring her back next season. However, Nneka Ogwumike has been fantastic including being named a starter to the All-Star team. And other players have stepped up like Lexie Brown, Katie Lou Samuelson, and Jordin Canada.
It should also be noted that the Sparks have no reason to tank for a lottery pick since their 2023 first-round draft pick was already traded to the Atlanta Dream and will likely end up with the Washington Mystics due to the Rhyne Howard trade.
Minnesota Lynx
2021 Record: 22-10 (3rd overall)
Overall Record: 8-15
I’m not sure any WNBA team has had a more disappointing season than the Minnesota Lynx. Especially, with this being Sylvia Fowles's final season. Minnesota finished the 2021 season with the 3rd best record in the WNBA (22-10). And while it was easy to predict they probably wouldn’t be as good without Napheesa Collier (Pregnancy and Maternity Leave), I don’t think most people expected them to struggle as much as they have. Through 10 games they were 2-8. And the next six games after that they were 1-5 for a total record of 3-13.
They’ve started to turn things around winning three of their last four games including against Chicago this week. But they will still have a major uphill battle if they want to reach the playoffs this season. Minnesota will have 13 games remaining after the All-Star break. Almost every game is going to be a MUST WIN for them. I don’t think they can do any worse than 9-4 and expect to get a playoff spot. And they might even have to go 10-3 or better in their final 13 games.
Going 10-3 would be tough for even the top seeds in the standings let alone a team that has the second-worst record in the league. Their remaining opponents certainly won’t be a cakewalk either with the Lynx having to play the Connecticut Sun three times, the Storm and Dream twice each, and the Washington Mystics.
While it would be nice to see Fowles make the playoffs in her final season, for the future of the Lynx, they might be better off not reaching the playoffs. That would put them into the lottery and give them a chance to land Aaliyah Boston. While they would likely have the worst odds of the four lottery teams thanks to the combined two-year record, they’d still have a shot. The Washington Mystics were not expected to land the #1 overall pick this year and that’s exactly what happened. Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good!
New York Liberty
2021 Record: 12-20 (8th overall)
Overall Record: 9-13
The New York Liberty have had a tale of two seasons leading up to the All-Star break. They started the year 1-7 but have since gone 8-6. New York clinched the 8th seed last season but their biggest acquisition was hiring their new head coach Sandy Brondello.
After making the playoffs last season as the 8th and final entrant the Liberty are currently on the outside looking in for a playoff spot this year. With the addition of Stefanie Dolson, the re-signing of Rebecca Allen, and the addition of a veteran head coach the expectations were higher for this team than they were a season ago. Because of their horrible start to the year and where they currently rank (10th overall) this season has definitely been a disappointment for the Liberty.
With that said, they still have 14 games to turn things around and they’re only one game out of the playoffs as the teams have reached the All-Star break. There’s more positive news. Both Natasha Howard and Sabrina Ionescu made the All-Star team. And Ionescu especially has been one of the league’s best players over the past month.
She won Player of the Month for the month of June and recently set a new record as the first WNBA player ever to score 30+ points and have a Triple-Double. She has had two Triple-Doubles this season tying her with Candace Parker for the most all-time in WNBA history. For those that watched her play at the University of Oregon, this isn’t a huge surprise.
But after a couple of seasons where injuries and adjustments to the league limited her impact. It’s great to see Ionescu finally starting to shine as she did during her time in college which made her the #1 overall pick in 2020.
Phoenix Mercury
2021 Record: 19-13 (5th overall)
Overall Record: 10-14
Last season the Phoenix Mercury’s season played out very similar to the Chicago Sky’s season. Both teams struggled through the regular season. Phoenix got hot late winning seven games in a row after the Tokyo Olympic break. That allowed them to move up a few spots in the standings and they ultimately finished 5th overall ahead of Chicago.
As the 5th seed, they had to play in two single-elimination games. They nearly lost both of them. They defeated the New York Liberty by a single point and needed more than the regular 40 minutes against Seattle; knocking off the defending champs in overtime. After that, they managed to outlast a very talented Las Vegas Aces team winning in the 5th and final game of the series. Phoenix made it all the way to the WNBA Finals before losing to the Chicago Sky in four games.
During the offseason, the team made a surprise move letting go of 8-year head coach Sandy Brondello. Brondello had led them to two WNBA Finals appearances winning the title in 2014 as well as multiple trips to the WNBA Semi-Finals.
After moving on from their head coach, the Mercury did make several great moves in free agency. The biggest acquisition was Tina Charles who signed for well below what she’s worth. They also were able to acquire Diamond DeShields. They got out of Bria Hartley’s contract which allowed them to make those two moves plus re-sign Sophie Cunningham, Shey Peddy, and the injured Kia Nurse.
On paper, Phoenix looked like a Top 3 or 4 team with a real legit shot to win the title. But then something happened that no one could have possibly imagined. Brittney Griner was detained in Russia on drug possession charges. And sadly, she remains in a Russian prison to this day.
Just from a basketball perspective, losing Griner is losing one of the league’s most elite players. A perennial MVP candidate who can completely take over and alter the outcome of games.
From a human being's perspective, this is so unimaginably heartbreaking and disturbing.
Without Griner, the team still had a lot of talent on the roster including Skylar Diggins-Smith, Diana Taurasi, Tina Charles, and Diamond DeShields. Whether it’s coaching or something else, the team just hasn’t played up to expectations.
They got off to a poor start winning just 2 of their first 10 games of the year. Since then they’ve been better going 8-6, but they are still on the outside looking in for a playoff spot. Phoenix has two more losses than the current playoff teams so they’re going to have to make up ground after All-Star Weekend. They’ll have 12 games to do so or wind up back in the lottery.
Although at this point, that may be best for the organization. With Diana Taurasi almost certainly retiring within the next 2-3 years and the Brittney Griner situation being so up in the air, landing Aaliyah Boston or another top prospect wouldn’t be so bad.
It’s hard to see Phoenix being a legit contender this year; especially, after the team and Tina Charles agreed to part ways. Charles was not happy with how the season was playing out and her role on the team so her agent arranged a buyout to get out of her contract.
Since then, there have been leaks reporting that the team is considering trading away Skylar Diggins-Smith, the team’s only All-Star. Even though we saw her and Taurasi fighting earlier in the year, that’s still shocking to me. Diggins-Smith is the most talented player on the team with Griner unavailable and Taurasi well past her prime. The franchise could easily build around Skylar and (hopefully) Griner for the next 5 years. From a basketball standpoint, trading her doesn’t make sense.
With the trade deadline coming up soon in July, we’ll find out if there’s truth to these latest reports.
Seattle Storm
2021 Record: 21-11 (4th overall)
Overall Record: 15-8
The Storm had a disappointing finish to their 2021 season. After leading all teams with the best record in the WNBA heading into the Tokyo Olympic’s break the team struggled down the stretch. They finished 5-5 over their final 10 games which was the worst record of any of the Top 5 teams. This dropped them from #1 overall down to the 4th seed putting them in a single-elimination playoff game. To make matters worse, Breanna Stewart suffered an undisclosed (at the time) injury that kept her out of the final two games and their playoff contest against the Phoenix Mercury. We later found out she partially tore her other Achilles heel which required another surgery to repair. Without Stewart, they weren’t able to escape the first round and fell to the Phoenix Mercury in OT.
In the offseason, the team had to prioritize their own free agents. They were successful in retaining Breanna Stewart and Jewell Loyd. And Sue Bird agreed to come back for another year. Beyond that, their biggest acquisition wasn’t a major move. They added Briann January to come in to fill the backup PG role and add more defense to the team. Seattle also made a trade, trading away Katie Lou Samuelson and their first-round draft pick for Gabby Williams.
With new and familiar faces teaming up, Seattle struggled out of the gate with multiple players being kept out of the lineup due to Health & Safety protocols. The team lost three of their first four games during that time. But since then they’ve won 14 of 19 games.
Through a good portion of the first half, the team was playing well but not elite. They’ve struggled with their offense and overall rebounding. And their bench hasn’t provided enough scoring. They looked like a solid team that probably wasn’t in the top tier of title contenders.
But then the big news dropped. Tina Charles would be parting ways with the Phoenix Mercury and joining the Seattle Storm. While it took Charles a few games to get settled in with the team as she has had to learn completely new schemes and systems on the fly. She has brought both scoring and rebounding off the bench for the Storm.
The Storm are now 4-1 since Charles joined and look like a more complete team. With a couple of other teams above them slumping and Seattle’s surge, they moved into the 3rd overall seed in the WNBA standings as teams enter All-Star Weekend. Sue Bird, Jewell Loyd, and Breanna Stewart were all named to the All-Star team.
Seattle peaked too soon in 2021 and faltered down the stretch. This year, it seems like they are getting better as the season goes on. Coach Quinn and the players have been adamant about wanting to peak at the right time. If they can finish the regular season in the Top 3 they’ll have met or exceeded expectations from the start of the year.
Washington Mystics
2021 Record: 12-20 (9th overall)
Overall Record: 14-10
The Washington Mystics had a disappointing 2021 season where they finished 9th overall and missed the playoffs by one game. A huge reason for that was the fact that Elena Delle Donne had to have another back surgery that kept her out of all but three games last year.
This year Delle Donne is healthy. Well … sorta. She is healthier but has still been limited in action. The Mystics are taking an ultra-conservative approach to playing (and resting) their former MVP. She has played in 14 of the team’s 24 games this year. When she is playing, she’s put up All-Star type numbers. But she’s missing over 40% of her games so far; mostly games played on the road.
From an expectations standpoint, the Mystics are right around where most thought they’d be. If everyone is healthy, they should be a top contender. They lost Emma Meesseman to Free Agency which hurts. But getting Delle Donne (mostly) back and Alysha Clark back healthy has been a big boost. Plus, the addition of rookie Shakira Austin has been a bright spot for the team. Ariel Atkins is having another strong season as the team’s lone All-Star.
When trying to predict the team’s outlook in the playoffs it’s tough because we assume but don’t know if Elena Delle Donne will be available to play in every single postseason game. The team’s biggest concern outside of their health is that it seems like they’re lacking one more legit scorer. Players like Alysha Clark and Natasha Cloud can provide a lot of offense in games but it may not be consistent enough for them to win a title.
The other concern is they haven’t fared very well against the WNBA’s elite teams. They’ve lost twice to both the Chicago Sky and the Connecticut Sun. They also lost to Seattle in the one game those two teams have played against one another so far.
I do think the Mystics are good enough to win the title if they remain healthy and they can continue to play strong defense and find an extra option on offense. But I could also see them getting knocked out in the first round as they’ll likely have a tough matchup against a team like Seattle or Connecticut.
WNBA Standings
Chicago Sky 16-6
Las Vegas Aces 15-7
Seattle Storm 15-8
Connecticut Sun 14-8
Washington Mystics 14-10
Atlanta Dream 10-12
Los Angeles Sparks 10-12
Dallas Wings 10-12
Phoenix Mercury 10-14
New York Liberty 9-13
Minnesota Lynx 8-15
Indiana Fever 5-19
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