Around the W: Initial Team Projections

The 2025 WNBA season is here!

The 2025 WNBA season begins today, Friday, May 16th. It should be another fun and exciting season! The league’s popularity continues to grow as we usher in new stars from the college ranks. After adding Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese last season, we have more talented players coming in, headlined by UConn’s Paige Bueckers.

The New York Liberty will try to repeat as champions while the Minnesota Lynx and Seattle Storm each hope to win their record-breaking 5th WNBA Championship. The Las Vegas Aces hope to cement their dynasty by winning their 3rd title in the past four years. And for the first time since 2009, we will have more than 12 teams in the league as we introduce the Golden State Valkyries as the league’s first expansion team since the 2008 Atlanta Dream.

I am so excited to watch and cover the upcoming WNBA season. Below, I have written my team projections for the year and what stands out with each team. Let’s go!

1. New York Liberty

I was tempted to keep the New York Liberty out of the top spot in the WNBA because I believe losing Betnijah Laney-Hamilton for the entire season is a huge deal. In a lot of ways, I’ve felt Betnijah was the glue that held the Liberty together. An unsung hero who would hit clutch shots when the team needed her the most. She is also their best perimeter defender. Beyond that, they also lost Courtney Vandersloot and Kayla Thornton. While Vandersloot saw her role limited in the playoffs, she is still one of the best pure point guards in the WNBA. Thornton was one of the Liberty’s key players off the bench in their championship season.

With that said, New York’s team is still loaded with talent. Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones are both former MVPs and are two of the best players in the entire league. Sabrina Ionescu is a clutch three-point shooter and one of the most well-rounded guards in the WNBA. They also return Leonie Fiebich and Nyara Sabally from last season. Two players who are highly talented and have yet to even reach their prime.

They also made an aggressive trade for point guard Natasha Cloud. Rebekah Gardner should also help fill the role that Thornton played in 2024.

Despite the loss of Laney, the Liberty certainly have enough talent to run it back.

2. Las Vegas Aces

Any team that has A’ja Wilson is always going to be a contender. Especially when they surround her with other All-Stars in Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, and now Jewell Loyd. Kelsey Plum wanted a new start, but the Aces were able to land Loyd in a three-team trade. While the Aces may not have the exact same team chemistry as when they won back-to-back championships, you won’t be able to argue against the talent on their roster.

Maybe just as important as adding Loyd is the fact that Chelsea Gray is healthy to begin this season. That is going to be a big boost to the Aces. Gray looked great in Unrivaled as she helped Team Rose win the inaugural championship.

One concern for the Aces will be their depth. They no longer have Tiffany Hayes, Alysha Clark, Sydney Colson, or Kate Martin. Las Vegas will win a ton of games just because of their starting unit, but with a 44-game regular season, the most in WNBA history, will they be able to stay healthy and rested enough to make a deep playoff run to the title?

Another concern for the Aces will be their lack of post depth. Cheyenne Parker-Tyus, who signed as a Free Agent, is expected to miss most of the season as she is currently pregnant. Megan Gustafson suffered a lower leg injury in late April during practice and will be out indefinitely, according to the Aces. A’ja Wilson is used to carrying the load, but this is going to test her more than any other season.

3. Indiana Fever

The Indiana Fever enter the 2025 WNBA season with a lot of hype. They were one of the hottest teams to end last year, and they’ve made a lot of strong roster moves to get even better. They’ve added championship veterans in DeWanna Bonner and Natasha Howard. The Fever also traded for Sophie Cunningham to add additional three-point shooting. They should compete for a Top 4 seed, and then we’ll see what they do in the playoffs.

I know the Caitlin Clark hype is overblown, but I do legitimately believe the Fever have the potential to be one of the best teams in the WNBA. I don’t think it’s far-fetched to envision them winning the Championship. While Bonner and Howard are at the tail end of their careers, I still believe they can make a large impact for the Fever. Bonner should help shoulder some of the scoring load, and Howard is a perfect fit for Caitlin’s passing ability as a player who excels in transition.

The Fever will be must-watch TV, but not just because of Clark. We need to see how this team builds their chemistry and if they’ll look like legitimate title contenders by July 1st. Clark missed a preseason game due to a foot injury. As long as that doesn’t linger throughout the season, Indiana should finish as a Top 3-5 team.

4. Minnesota Lynx

It’s interesting to see so many places rank the Minnesota Lynx as #2, only behind New York. Putting them 2nd feels more like placing them there because they made the WNBA Finals last season as opposed to actually believing they have the second-best roster in the entire league. I mean, I get it. The Lynx were incredible last season, and Napheesa Collier is an absolute superstar. Coach Cheryl Reeve is considered the best in the game. And the Lynx were a couple of plays away from upsetting the Liberty and winning their 5th WNBA Championship. But is it fair to say that I need to see this group do it again before I become a true believer?

I wasn’t super impressed with their off-season. Unlike some of the other teams, Minnesota didn’t make any major splashy moves. They’ve lost Myisha Hines-Allen, Cecilia Zandalasini, and Dorka Juhasz (season suspension). They’ve added Karlie Samuelson, Marième Badiane, and brought back Jessica Shepard.

I won’t be surprised if Minnesota isn’t as good this season and finishes outside of the top two spots. With that said, it could be a situation where the 2nd place team wins 31 games and the Lynx win around 28 or 29.

One thing to keep an eye on. To my understanding, Kayla McBride may miss some time to begin the season.

5. Seattle Storm

I have high expectations for the Storm this season. They would be even higher on my list if Jordan Horston and Katie Lou Samuelson were healthy. Seattle made the big blockbuster trade, trading away All-Star guard Jewell Loyd in exchange for the #2 overall pick, which ended up being Dominique Malonga, the 6’6” 19-year-old French star. But beyond that, I really liked a lot of their other “smaller” moves. I think bringing back Alysha Clark was not only smart because of her 3-and-D ability, but also because it directly weakened the team that eliminated Seattle from the playoffs last season, the Las Vegas Aces. Additional trades to acquire Li Yueru and Lexie Brown should help strengthen the team’s bench. Also, having Gabby Williams for the full season is an underrated story to keep an eye on this summer.

As I’ve written about multiple times before, I like the idea of running the offense through more efficient players like Nneka Ogwumike and Ezi Magbegor. Jewell Loyd was a pure joy to watch on the basketball court. Her skill and athletic ability led to numerous memorable moments throughout her 10-year career in Seattle. But she wasn’t the most efficient player. Ogwumike and Magbegor have never had a season where they’ve shot below 50%. Having them take more shots and be more involved in the offense should be a net positive for Seattle.

Seattle’s frontcourt looks to be one of the best in the league. Especially if you factor in the potential of Malonga and what we’ve seen out of Li Yueru. If Malonga can make an immediate impact in the WNBA, the Storm might be good enough to win it all this year. If team chemistry is significantly better than last season and everything clicks, I do think the Storm could finish in the Top 3.

The biggest question is what will they get out of their guard play beyond Skylar Diggins’s contributions? What are Erica Wheeler, Lexie Brown, and Zia Cooke able to do when they get their minutes? Can any of them be a legitimate scorer off the bench? Can the Storm get enough contributions beyond Nneka and Skylar to become a true contender?

6. Atlanta Dream

I really like the Atlanta Dream’s roster this season, and I think they’re going to be pretty good. They have a strong group of guards and post players. It’ll just depend on how quickly they can build chemistry with their new players and their new Head Coach.

Will Brittney Griner and Brionna Jones take pressure off of Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray? Can they dominate down low as Atlanta’s own version of the Twin Towers? They will need to get a lot out of both players to turn Atlanta into a legitimate playoff team, rather than a fringe one like they were last season.

It looked like Jordin Canada may have suffered a serious injury in the preseason. Depending on the severity, that could play a major factor in the team’s success this season. Rookie Te-Hina Paopao will get a ton of run at the point guard position if Canada has to miss all or a good portion of the season.

If things don’t work out this season, I wonder if the Dream will look to blow things up and start over in 2026.

7. Phoenix Mercury

Over the past few years, the Phoenix Mercury have had the same problem. They remain so top-heavy but lack the depth you would see out of New York or Minnesota. Except this year, it’s with a new cast of characters. Out goes Diana Taurasi and Brittney Griner, and in comes Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally.

Alyssa Thomas has been one of the game’s best players over the past few years. However, she has also struggled (at times) to become that go-to player with the game on the line. Her skillset is not best utilized in isolation, one-on-one. Instead, it’s her versatility, her passing ability, and her strength. But if you need a game-winner, you might not go to Thomas.

The Mercury are hoping that Thomas, Sabally, and Kahleah Copper will be able to carry the team deep into the playoffs, but I have my doubts. Phoenix has 3 or 4 players on their final opening-day roster that I’m not familiar with. I’ve been covering the league for over 10 years now, and watching since the very beginning. That’s probably not a great sign.

Unless a lot of the Mercury’s role players end up having a major impact beyond what I’m expecting, then I have a hard time imagining the Mercury finishing as a Top 5 team. I think they’ll be closer to that 7-9 range.

8. Chicago Sky

The Chicago Sky should be a fun team this season. Veterans Courtney Vandersloot and Ariel Atkins should help their young post players. The development of Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso will be key to the Sky’s chances to earn a playoff spot this season.

I think bringing Vandersloot back will be a big move. The most important piece to have in the WNBA is a dominant post player, but the second most important piece to have is an excellent point guard who can get them the ball in every situation.

Part of me believes the Sky will be even better than where I have them ranked. I like their roster more than the Mercury’s. But I think their top-end talent isn’t quite as strong. I wouldn’t be shocked if Chicago finishes 6th or 7th this year, but I think the most realistic scenario is a bubble playoff team where they finish somewhere between 7 and 9.

9. Dallas Wings

The Dallas Wings will be one of the more interesting teams to watch this season. How will Paige Bueckers and Arike Ogunbowale work off one another? Arike has been so ball-dominant her entire career, and the efficiency just isn’t there. Will the Wings’ new Head Coach get them to play more team basketball? Will Paige Buecker’s high efficiency numbers translate to the WNBA, and will they influence Arike at all?

Do they have enough post depth? Will Myisha Hines-Allen and NaLyssa Smith be able to improve their games? Will Maddy Siegrist build upon her strong sophomore season in the WNBA to become one of Dallas’s top scorers? What kind of impact will DiJonai Carrington have? There are a lot of questions I have with Dallas, but that is what makes them an interesting team to follow.

If everything clicks, they can be a playoff team, but it may take a season or two to figure it all out. I have the Wings just missing the playoffs as the first team out.

10. Los Angeles Sparks

The Los Angeles Sparks were the worst team in the WNBA last season. Since then, they have fired Curt Miller. They traded away the #2 overall pick to acquire Kelsey Plum. They also traded away Li Yueru and Lexie Brown. Layshia Clarendon retired from the WNBA. They cut Aari McDonald and Zia Cooke. Kia Nurse signed with the Chicago Sky, and Stephanie Talbot was picked up by the Valkyries in the expansion draft.

Dearica Hamby, Kelsey Plum, and Azurá Stevens will have to carry the load. Rickea Jackson should continue to develop in year two and has All-Star potential, but there is more uncertainty surrounding Cameron Brink. Brink tore her ACL during last season and is still recovering from that. She joined the new Unrivaled league earlier this year but didn’t play in a single game. Brink won’t be ready to start this season, and the current forecast is that she will start playing in early June. But what if she doesn’t? A torn ACL is a very serious injury, and they don’t want to rush her back if there is a higher risk of re-injuring her leg. The Sparks cut guards Aari McDonald and Shaneice Swaine and kept older veteran Emma Cannon and rookie Sania Feagin (both post players). It could just be that those players outplayed the others in training camp and earned their roster spot, but it may also be an indication that the Sparks feel they need more post depth because Brink is further away from returning compared to what is being reported.

Five teams are going to miss the playoffs this season instead of just four. As of right now, I have a hard time seeing the Sparks make the playoffs. I could be way off. I’m pretty sure I’ve seen some places pick the Sparks to be a Top 5 team. I just don’t see that when I look at their roster.

Now, some subconscious bias may be creeping in. The Storm own the Sparks’ 2026 first-round pick, and because of the two-year lottery rule and the fact that the Sparks had the worst record in 2024, if LA does miss the playoffs, then Seattle is very likely to end up with a Top 3 draft pick in 2026. That could become a key piece in the Storm’s next Championship core.

With that said, the Sparks have rostered multiple rookies and second-year players. Younger players have generally struggled in the WNBA early in their careers. The Sparks went 8-32 last season. I’m not sure Kelsey Plum is going to turn them into a 20+ win team this season.

11. Washington Mystics

It’s a new era in D.C. and the rebuild is underway. They need to build and develop rookies Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen along with younger posts Aaliyah Edwards and Shakira Austin. With a new coach and General Manager, it could take time to fully develop into what they want this team to be.

The Mystics traded away Ariel Atkins and Karlie Samuelson. They lost Julie Vanloo in the expansion draft and Shatori Walker-Kimbrough in Free Agency. I think it’ll be an uphill battle for Washington to make the playoffs this season.

Their problems continue as the 6th overall pick, Georgia Amoore, tore her ACL and will miss the entire season. Even worse, Shakira Austin is apparently injured again and out of action to begin the season despite playing in the Unrivaled league. Aaliyah Edwards has also been dealing with a back issue and is expected to miss at least the first game.

This will be a great opportunity for the younger players, Citron and Iriafen, as well as for third-year player Jade Melbourne.

12. Connecticut Sun

This season should be more about building a foundation and finding out what they have in Aneesah Morrow, Saniya Rivers, Jacy Sheldon, and Olivia Nelson-Ododa. Reaching the playoffs will be a massive challenge for this team. Development is the most important thing this year.

Veterans Tina Charles and Marina Mabrey should be able to help them win some games, but this team’s only chance of making the playoffs is if a lot of the younger players step up and have an immediate impact.

13. Golden State Valkyries

The Golden State Valkyries mark the first WNBA Expansion team to play in the league since the Atlanta Dream debuted in 2008. That alone is worth celebrating! When I think of the GSV, I think of opportunity. Opportunity for 11+ women to live out their dreams. They could finish in 13th place (dead last), but it won’t matter. The Valkyries are proof that the WNBA is growing. They are proof that many more cities are hungry for women’s basketball.

Expansion teams are rarely any good, and the Golden State Valkyries are probably not going to be the exception to that rule. They made a lot of interesting choices during the expansion draft, favoring a lot of International players. That trend continued when they took Justė Jocytė 5th overall in the WNBA Draft.

What’s unfortunate for Valkyries fans is that Jocytė is staying overseas this year, so they won’t get to enjoy watching her play during their inaugural season. Furthermore, the Valkyries, despite being an expansion franchise, cut all of their other rookies in training camp.

Good luck to Coach Natalie Nakase, you’re going to need it.

Notes:
Thanks for all the great support! Please tell other WNBA fans about my coverage. Please share, retweet, repost, etc., if you enjoy my articles.
Thanks to Her Hoop Stats and Across the Timeline for being great resources.
Photo Credits: Seattle Storm/WNBA Photography

Social Media:
Follow me on Bluesky (@wnbastormchasers.bsky.social)
Follow me on Threads (@WNBAStormChasers)
Follow me on X/Twitter (@WNBAStormChaser)