Aces clinch #1 seed, defeat Storm 109-100

Las Vegas ends regular season as WNBA's top team!

(Las Vegas, Nevada) - The Las Vegas Aces cemented themselves as the league’s best team after defeating the Seattle Storm for the second time in the span of a week. The Storm had an impressive 100-point performance but it wasn’t good enough as the team’s defense gave up triple digits for the second time in the past three games, ultimately losing this game 109-100.

Overall, it was a fantastic and fun game by both teams and very similar to Seattle’s recent 111-100 victory over the Chicago Sky. Both offenses were humming and the league’s talent was on full display. We witnessed career nights from players on both sides; as well as one last battle between two MVP-hopefuls.

“I thought it was a fun game! We learned a lot about today, being up against Vegas on the road, and obviously the resiliency they showed. They are a tough team, we know that. We got great contributions all over, especially from Jewell. Big boards from Stewie. We have to take care of the ball though - 18 turnovers and 30 points off turnovers - that’s way too many. I liked the energy of the building and from our team. I thought it was a great game of basketball.” Coach Quinn said in her opening statement.

Jewell Loyd did everything she could to will Seattle to a victory. Loyd finished the game with a career-high 38 points on 13-23 FG shooting including a terrific 8-14 FG from beyond the three-point arc. Loyd was a huge part of the team knocking down a season-high 18 triples (18-40 3-PT FG for 45%).

“I just came in wanting to play basketball. That’s been my mindset these last couple of games. I’m really good at basketball and I understand that. I’m not trying to overthink anything. I’m going to take what the defense gives me and I’m going to play hard. That’s where I’m at. It felt good.” Loyd stated.

I followed that up by asking her if there was any solace in setting a new career-high even if it came in a losing effort.

“You know what, I just want to go into the playoffs playing well. That was the mindset for all of us. We just want to get into a good rhythm. I think that’s what we’ve had the last couple of games. Scoring or not, you obviously want to see the ball go into the rim. I just want to get a good feel and tuned up for this big stretch, this push we’re trying to make.” she added.

Coach Noelle Quinn gave her thoughts on Loyd’s performance.

“(She was) locked in from the jump. Offensively, she was getting to her spots. She was knocking down the open ones. You know, Jewell sees a lot of different defenses. When she’s able to get free and have the shots and looks that she did, when she knocks them down she’s deadly. We know she’s a prolific scorer within this league. We know what she can do getting to the rim, scoring on multiple levels. I think her confidence levels are high. She’s taking her time and knocking them in. She’s looking really relaxed.” Quinn stated.

Breanna Stewart had another impressive game with 21 points, 15 rebounds, and four assists. It’s tough to say whether or not Stewart did enough to win the MVP award this season. The award will almost certainly go to her or A’ja Wilson as they are the clear-cut front runners. You can argue that Stewart had to do a lot more for her team as the Aces had four WNBA All-Stars this season and should have had a 5th with Chelsea Gray being left off the team. Kelsey Plum will likely be named to the All-WNBA First Team alongside A’ja Wilson and I think Gray has a great chance to be named to the All-WNBA Second Team. I’m not certain any Seattle player other than Stewart will be named to either the All-WNBA First or Second Team this year. If Media voters base it off of team records which they traditionally have done, then Wilson will likely win the Most Valuable Player of the Year Award. However, I could see Stewart winning the MVP award if Plum steals away a few votes away from her teammate.

Gabby Williams was the only other player to score in double figures with 11 points. Williams continues to improve her offense as the season has progressed. She hit double-digit scoring in four of her final eight regular season games. In total, Williams reached double figures nine times in 36 games including seven times in the final month and a half of the season. Her trajectory is on the upswing.

What was really disappointing for the Storm were the performances of both Tina Charles and Ezi Magbegor.

Even though the game was meaningless for Seattle, Coach Quinn played her top players a lot of minutes; clearly trying to win the game. Tina and Ezi did not meet the moment. Magbegor was held scoreless on 0-3 FG shooting and Charles was limited to just four points on 2-9 FG from the floor. Kiah Stokes and Iliana Rupert combined for 15 points or more than triple the amount of points Charles and Magbegor scored. If these two teams do see each other in the playoffs that absolutely can’t happen.

Other than Magbegor, Seattle’s bench actually played well and quite frankly should have played more minutes. Briann January led the way with nine points and Stephanie Talbot added six. The two of them combined for 5-8 FG from beyond the arc. Epiphanny Prince played just five minutes but managed to score five points in her limited time. With the way Loyd was playing, I understand not playing Prince more but overall the bench should have seen more action. Seattle’s reserves did outscore the Aces’ bench players 20-17.

Surprisingly, Seattle did out-rebound Las Vegas 40-33. This likely had to do with the fact that Dearica Hamby was out and because the Aces didn’t miss a ton of shots.

The Las Vegas Aces

Ridiculous. Filthy. Juggernaut. Unstoppable. Those are some words that come to mind when watching the Las Vegas Aces play basketball this season. They finished this season with the best record in the WNBA. They won the Commissioner’s Cup in the middle of this season and only lost the season series to one team this year (the Mystics). Most notably, they won the series against Chicago, Connecticut, and Seattle. The other top four teams in the WNBA.

Las Vegas has been on the cusp of winning the WNBA title over the last two years. They finished as the #1 overall seed in 2020 and made it to the Finals before losing to Seattle. Last season they lost in Game 5 of the semi-finals to the Mercury when Brittney Griner rejected A’ja Wilson in the final seconds to seal the win for Phoenix.

Phoenix is without Griner this year. And this Seattle team isn’t nearly as deep as the 2020 Championship squad. I’m not sure if there’s anything that can stop the Aces from realizing their dreams this season.

For parts of the game, Seattle had slowed down Kelsey Plum and Chelsea Gray. But they weren’t able to hold them down. Plum was held to just six points in the first half and Gray had 12 points. They both exploded in the second half as Plum scored 17 points in the 2nd half to finish the game with 23 points. Gray was even more impressive scoring 21 points in the 2nd half including an outrageous 16 points in the 4th quarter. Gray finished with a career-high 33 points and nearly had a triple-double. Gray added a game-high nine assists and seven rebounds. Seattle’s inability to slow her down despite the fact that Gabby Williams, one of the league’s best perimeter defenders, was on her the majority of the time is concerning.

“She’s a very, very top point guard in this league. We all know that. To be honest, there are not a lot of elite point guards in the world and she’s up there behind Sue (she said with a laugh). She’s incredible. She’s just a great person, she loves the game, her IQ. I loved playing with her - the USA team. Being on both sides, I know how hard it is to play against her and with her. You’ll just watch her sometimes, you forget to move. (Gray) is just a tremendous player and the league is in good hands with point guards like her.” Loyd told me.

A’ja Wilson put forth another MVP-type performance. While not quite as impressive as Gray, she still had a double-double with 25 points and 10 rebounds. She also added five assists. Wilson leads the league in double-doubles this season. A’ja did most of her damage in the first half scoring 15 of her 25 points before halftime.

I asked Coach Quinn what the challenges are in trying to contain those three stars for Las Vegas.

“Chelsea, with her size, disrupts us in a way. We have Gabby on her or Steph, but when she gets in isolated situations she’s difficult. She has the ability to score on three levels and also pass. No matter if you’re trapping her or showing her congestion she can see and she’s very poised in those situations. It’s tough to be disruptive on the Point Gawd like that because of her ability. And then Kelsey, when she’s cooking, obviously the three-ball is beneficial for her but just getting downhill. For the most part, we were good early. But she got some late ones. She got open. We can’t let her get the open looks. A’ja has been steady all year, now adding the three-ball. But just playing with a lot of confidence and her rebounding. They’re built for this! Their guards are great. They have a good front court. It’s a difficult thing to defend when you want to put your best defender on one but then the other one gets cooking. It’s a challenge but that’s also fun for me and our staff to figure out how we can get better.” Quinn stated.

If you’re a Storm fan, you have to be concerned that the Aces were without Dearica Hamby who is on crutches with an injured knee, Jackie Young was sick with a non-COVID illness and completely ineffective (two points in 25 minutes), and Las Vegas still beat Seattle by nine points.

They forced Seattle into 18 turnovers and scored 30 points off of those giveaways. Las Vegas dominated the foul line making 20-24 Free Throw Attempts while limiting the Storm to just 6-7 from the charity stripe. The Aces also shot nearly 56% (39-70 FG) and held Seattle to 46% (38-82 FG).

Game Breakdown

Jewell Loyd buried a three to score the first points of the game. Kiah Stokes then drove baseline and used the rim to protect her away from Tina Charles. Chelsea Gray then knocked down one of her step-backs to give the Aces their first lead of the game. Seattle found Stewie cutting in the lane. A’ja Wilson responded with a long-range two-pointer. Loyd hit another three but the Aces followed that up with ten straight points including six points from Gray who was absolutely in a groove early.

Sue Bird finally ended the 10-0 run with a three. But Kelsey Plum blew past all the defenders for an easy two points at the rim to put the Aces up 19-11. Tina Charles scored her first points of the game after getting a couple of attempts in the low post and converting off her own offensive rebound. The Aces continued to pour it on as Wilson scored again and then Riquna Williams knocked down a corner three.

After Stewart scored a couple more baskets, Kelsey Plum responded with another triple. The Storm would finish the first period on a 7-0 run to cut the Aces’ 11-point lead down to three at 29-26. Stephanie Talbot hit a three in the corner and Gabby Williams finished the quarter with an aggressive drive to the rim.

Epiphanny Prince picked Plum’s pocket and cruised down the other end for two points. Seattle’s defense got another stop and then found Briann January for a corner three to give Seattle their first lead since the early part of the first quarter (31-29). The Storm went on a 12-0 run between the end of the first and beginning of the 2nd periods which forced Vegas Coach Becky Hammon to call a timeout. Prince would hit another off-balanced three as the shot-clock was about to expire to give the Storm their largest lead of the first half up five.

A’ja Wilson went to work drawing a foul against Prince splitting the pair of free throws. She then drove past Stewart for two. Talbot hit another triple then Loyd scored five more points. Chelsea Gray and Tina Charles swapped baskets during this span. Stewart hit a jumper and was fouled against A’ja Wilson but missed the free throw. It put the Storm up 12 points at 46-34.

Just as the Storm did in the first quarter it was the Aces that went on a huge run to end the 2nd quarter. Trailing Seattle 51-40, Las Vegas would finish the half on a 10-0 run. Kiah Stokes started the run with a mid-range jumper. Gray hit another jumper and then Riquna Williams knocked down a corner three-pointer with Sue Bird’s hands right in her face. Riquna made another three on Vegas’ final possession to make it a one-point game at 51-50.

Jewell Loyd led the Storm in scoring in the first half with 18 points. Breanna Stewart had a double-double with 10 points and 10 rebounds. The Aces were led by A’ja Wilson who had 15 points and six rebounds. Chelsea Gray added 12 points, five rebounds, and four assists in the first half.

The Aces shot the ball particularly well shooting 56% (20-36 FG) and 36% (5-14 FG) from beyond the arc. The Storm weren’t too far behind connecting on 48% (19-40 FG) and an impressive 47% from long distance.

Charles found Gabby Williams wide-open under the basket to begin the third quarter. Wilson was able to cut down the lane in transition for two. Jewell continued to go to work scoring back-to-back baskets. Plum scored a triple to tie the game at 55-55. Seattle would go on a quick 8-0 run to pull ahead 63-55. Loyd scored on a jumper and then a three-pointer. Then Bird connected on her own shot from beyond the arc.

Las Vegas would respond back with their own 5-0 run as Kiah Stokes surprisingly connected on a three-pointer and Wilson scored another mid-range jumper.

The French National team saw their representation on both ends of the court as Iliana Rupert cut to the rim for a nice layup. And Gabby Williams knocked down a three-pointer on the other end.

Stewie hit a three as Riquna Williams shoved Loyd to the ground. Williams was called for the foul and they counted the basket allowing Seattle to convert the ultra-rare four-point play!

Briann January connected on a three-ball to put the Storm back up ten at 76-66. Seattle appeared to be in full control of the game with less than two minutes to go in the third period. That’s when all hell broke loose. Jackie Young returned after sitting out most of the quarter feeling under the weather. She helped rally the team along with Kelsey Plum and Chelsea Gray. The Aces finished the quarter on a 12-0 run in about 90 seconds. This gave Las Vegas a 78-76 lead as the teams entered the 4th quarter.

That run really swung the momentum completely in the Aces’ favor. They never looked back as they would outscore the Storm 31-24 over the final 10 minutes. I spoke with Coach Quinn about what happened late in the third period.

“The turnovers. The live-ball turnovers, we can’t have them. If we’re going to turn the ball over they have to take it out on the side so we can set our defense. That’s what it was. We were careless with the ball and not being poised. We have to eliminate those especially if it’s going to be a possession by possession game.” Noelle said.

A’ja scored again to begin the 4th quarter to extend the Aces’ run. Loyd made another three, her sixth of the game, to cut the lead back down to one. Gray and Loyd swapped three-point baskets. Gray was then able to draw a foul and made both free throws to put the Aces up 90-87.

Out of the timeout, Ezi found Stewie down low for an easy basket over the smaller Jackie Young. Seattle got the defensive stop and Stewart scored again to briefly regain the lead. It wouldn’t last more than a couple of seconds as Plum got the steal and was able to go up and under the rim to avoid Stewart’s outstretched arms. On the Aces’ next possession, Magbegor did not correctly box out Stokes which allowed Stokes to slip from behind her to gather the offensive rebound and lay it back up uncontested.

With roughly 90 seconds left in the game, Loyd made a layup to cut the Aces’ lead to one at 96-95. Las Vegas would finish the final minute and a half on a 13-5 run. Plum scored seven of those points and Gray added four more. At the final buzzer, the Aces had won 109-100.

Despite the loss, Seattle played hard. Loyd talked after the game about what they learned from this defeat.

“We worked on a lot of things, different rotations, certain personnel, and play calls. Stuff like that. When you play a team (four) times in a season you get to know people really well. That’s what playoffs are for. You have to strategize and adjust for every game. Our mindset was to come out here and compete. Try some things that were different and get ready for the playoffs.” Loyd told the media.

Additional Analysis

Seattle Can’t Keep Up

The Seattle Storm love to play a high fast-paced game. It’s been their M.O. since at least the Jenny Boucek era. However, what happens when they face a team that is better in transition than they are? That’s what we’ve witnessed this year as the Aces simply have too much firepower and the Storm have not been able to match them in three of the four games.

Las Vegas leads the WNBA in Offensive Rating (109.6). The Storm are in the middle of the pack, 6th best (102.6). OFF RTG is the number of points a team scores per 100 possessions. The Aces also lead the WNBA in Pace and Pace per 40 minutes. Their overall pace is 98.64 and they create 82.20 possessions per game. Meanwhile, the Storm are 7th overall in Pace (96.18) and Pace per 40 minutes (80.15).

If Seattle is fortunate enough to face the Aces again this year in the playoffs they may have to change their approach. They might be better off slowing the game down. The one time they did defeat the Aces was because their defense held them to under 80 points in an 88-78 victory for the Storm.

I was candid with Coach Quinn after the game asking her if their approach of playing a high-paced offense against the Aces was the correct decision.

“A lot of what we need to be mindful of, first and foremost, is taking care of the ball and not letting them get easy ones. A lot of those transition points there’s no defense for that. The thing about playing at a decent pace in the middle of the floor is that Vegas gives up 100 points as well. We had how many more shots? We shot 82 and they only shot 70. To have more opportunities with shots on goal, especially we know the team is very deadly with what they want to do. I’m not sure trying to be in the half-court is our best bet. I think you need to have a combination of both. Playoff basketball, it does become more possession by possession. The game just naturally slows down but where we find success is when we’re playing out of our defense. When we’re playing with pace. I’m not sure slowing it completely down (is the right move) other than to have a good balance.” Quinn elaborated.

Aces Likely Rooting for the Storm

With that information above in mind, I believe the Las Vegas Aces would welcome a second-round matchup against the Seattle Storm. In fact, I think that’s what they’re hoping for. The Aces defeated the Storm three times in four games this year. Both teams have a lot of similarities and in 2022 Las Vegas has simply been the better team.

The other reason Las Vegas would (likely) prefer to face Seattle is that during the regular season the team that gave them more problems than any other was the Washington Mystics. The Mystics actually swept the Aces 3-0. They were the only WNBA team to do so. Washington did it by slowing the game down significantly and forcing Las Vegas into more of a half-court offense. In doing so, they limited Las Vegas to under 80 points in two of the three games this year.

Washington won 89-76 over Las Vegas in D.C. on May 10th. The two teams then battled in an epic affair on June 25th where the Mystics overcame a late surge to defeat the Aces 87-86 in OT. Lastly, Washington beat the Aces for a third time back in D.C. 83-73 on August 2nd.

The Mystics are an excellent defensive team. They lead the WNBA in Defensive Rating giving up just 96.0 points per 100 possessions. They are also able to slow the pace down and score in the half-court limiting the Aces’ transition game. Washington is dead-last in Pace (94.05) and Pace/40 (78.38).

Limiting the Aces in the number of possessions they can score is key to taking them down.

The WNBA Playoffs Are Set!

With the regular season ending this weekend we now know who’s in and who’s out. The four lottery teams will be the Indiana Fever (5-31), the LA Sparks (13-23), the Atlanta Dream (14-22), and the Minnesota Lynx (14-22).

For Minnesota, it is the first time the team missed the playoffs since 2010. It also marked the end of Sylvia Fowles’ impressive career. Minnesota gave a valiant effort in Connecticut on Sunday, at one point cutting the lead down to four points late in the game. But the Sun’s Curt Miller put all of his starters back in the game to finish the game and come away with the victory. The victory meant nothing to Connecticut who was already locked into the third overall seed no matter the outcome but it did matter to Minnesota who had to say goodbye to their former MVP.

Because the Lynx finished 3rd overall last season, they will have the worst odds of the four lottery teams to land the #1 pick. However, the Mystics won the lottery last year after having the worst odds so you never know!

For Atlanta, it was a disappointing end to an otherwise fun season. For almost the entire year, the Dream had been one of the top eight teams and looked like they were on their way to the playoffs for the first time since 2018. However, they lost eight of their final ten games dropping them out of playoff contention.

The good news for the Dream is that because of their poor season last year and their late-season collapse, they will actually have the second-best odds to win the Draft Lottery and land the #1 overall pick. Adding Aliyah Boston to their young core of Rhyne Howard, Aari McDonald, and Naz Hillmon would give Atlanta a huge boost moving forward.

The LA Sparks really have the worst outlook. They’ve missed the playoffs in back-to-back seasons and traded away their first-round picks over those two years as well. Their 2023 pick was sent to Atlanta to acquire Chennedy Carter. That pick was then sent to the Washington Mystics when Atlanta swapped picks this year to acquire Rhyne Howard. A year after they won the WNBA Draft lottery, the Mystics will have a chance to win it again in 2023.

Indiana has never won the draft lottery. They’ve also really struggled since Tamika Catchings retired following the 2016 season. The Fever have missed the playoffs in six straight seasons and in three of those years have finished with the worst record in the WNBA. No franchise needs to win the lottery more than Indiana.

With the lottery teams now covered, let’s take a look at the four playoff matchups.

#1 seed versus #8 seed

The Las Vegas Aces (26-10) will battle against the Phoenix Mercury (15-21).

After finishing the season 8-2 over their final 10 games including key wins over the Chicago Sky and the Seattle Storm, the Aces were able to secure the #1 overall seed. They will have home-court advantage throughout the entire playoffs. They easily swept the Phoenix Mercury back in May.

Aces 106 - Mercury 88
Aces 86 - Mercury 74
Aces 100 - Mercury 80

Without Brittney Griner, Diana Taurasi, and possibly Skylar Diggins-Smith the Aces should have an easy time winning this series.

#2 seed versus #7 seed

The Chicago Sky (26-10) will face the New York Liberty (16-20).

Chicago won the season series three games to one against New York this season. However, most of the games were pretty close.

Sky 83 - Liberty 50
Sky 88 - Liberty 86
Liberty 83 - Sky 80
Sky 89 - Liberty 81

New York actually finished the regular season with some good momentum winning seven out of their final 10 games. That was actually better than the Sky who finished 6-4. The Liberty will look to pull off the shocking upset but the Sky are trying to become the first team since the 2001-2002 LA Sparks to win back-to-back WNBA Championships.

#3 seed versus #6 seed

It’ll be the Connecticut Sun (25-11) against the Dallas Wings (18-18).

This could be one of the more interesting first-round matchups as the underdog Dallas Wings actually won the season series 2-1 over Connecticut.

Wings 85 - Sun 77
Sun 99 - Wings 68
Wings 82 - Sun 71

However, it should be noted that Arike Ogunbowale played in all three of those games and will not be available in this playoff series after suffering a hip injury. She underwent an iliac crest core muscle avulsion repair and will likely miss the rest of the season including the playoffs. There is a chance she could return if they advance deep into the playoffs but won’t be available against Connecticut.

The Sun actually finished with the best Net Rating (9.5) at the conclusion of this season. That’s important because the WNBA team that has finished with the league’s best Net Rating has won the WNBA Championship in four out of the past five seasons (2017-2021). Dating all the way back to 2010, the eventual champion had either the #1 Net Rating (9 times) or the #2 overall Net Rating (2 times). Only the 2021 Chicago Sky bucked that trend as they finished 6th in Net Rating before going on to win the title.

This year Connecticut is #1 (9.5) and the Las Vegas Aces finished #2 (7.7).

#4 seed versus #5 seed

Lastly, the Seattle Storm (22-14) will host the Washington Mystics (22-14) in what is the most exciting matchup on paper.

Both teams finished with the same record but Seattle won the season series two games to one allowing them to have home-court advantage in their playoff matchup.

Storm 85 - Mystics 71
Storm 82 - Mystics 77
Mystics 78 - Storm 75

I spoke with Jewell after the game about earning that home-court advantage and her excitement to play in front of the Storm fans again in the playoffs.

“We definitely wanted to play at home. We wanted to get home-court advantage to play at home. Be home and be in a place that we know so that we can play in front of our fans. Any advantage is a plus in the playoffs, being at home to start, it gives us energy and gives us a push.” Loyd answered.

Jersey Count

Seattle’s final regular season game was played in their Green and White “Heroine” uniforms. The team played nearly 50% of their games (17/36) in these jerseys. They finished with a modest 10-7 record. Overall, the Storm finished 22-14 on the season - good for a .611 winning percentage. While they technically won more games than they did last season (22 to 21) they finished with a worse winning percentage (.611 versus .656) as all teams played four extra games this year compared to 2021. With the WNBA increasing to 40 games in 2023, it’s very possible we will see the first team in WNBA history to win 30+ games in the regular season.

Records per jersey type this season:
Rebel: 7-3
Explorer: 5-4
Heroine: 10-7
Overall Record: 22-14

Up Next

THE PLAYOFFS! Win or go home! Sue Bird will have one last opportunity to try and win a 5th WNBA title before she retires. It won’t be easy as Seattle will have to play through a gauntlet of tough opponents to take home the crown. They start against the Washington Mystics on Thursday, August 18th at 7:00 PM. Game 2 will take place on Sunday, August 21st at 1:00 PM.

Notes:
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Photo Credits to Neil Enns/Seattle Storm/WNBA Photography Team
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